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Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally

Laurel Village Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51087200412 · Henrico County, VA · pop 1,932 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

51087200412 is a census tract in the Laurel Village area of Laurel, VA. It scores 5.6/10 for landlords. Population here is 1,932. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.7/10.

Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 57% Stable renters 36% Owners 7%
Tract context
Occupied units1,080
Renter share92.7%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate11.1%
Median income$47,903

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Laurel Village
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 5 tracts In Laurel
Very High
Within county
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#10 of 85 tracts In Henrico County
High
Within state
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#226 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Laurel and the region

Centroid at 37.6331, -77.5143 · click any tract to drill in

Why Laurel Village scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Laurel
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.1% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$1,298 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Laurel
7.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Laurel
9.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Laurel
6.0

How Laurel Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Laurel Village risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.6This tracttract 2004124.4Laurelparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 83

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 456Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 22.85%Avg annual filing rate
  • 24.4%Peak (2016)
  • 244Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Laurel Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Laurel Village

93% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. 61% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Henrico County average of 47.8%. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.1/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $47,903 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.6/10.

16% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. It sits 1.3 points above the Henrico County average of 4.3.

At $1,298 a month, rents run 20% under what the rest of Laurel commands. The filing record is not thin: 456 evictions over 2 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2016 at 24.4% of renter households.

In a typical year about 22.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #22,681 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 8.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200412

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200412?

Census tract 51087200412 in the Laurel Village neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51087200412?

Median gross rent is $1,298/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200412?

11.1% of residents in tract 51087200412 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,932.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200412?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 81th, minority 80th, housing 72th.
Q5

Is tract 51087200412 considered part of Laurel Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200412 fall within Laurel Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200412?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 456 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200412 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.85% of renter households, peaking at 24.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51087200412 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51087200412 compare to Laurel overall?

Tract 51087200412 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Laurel at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Laurel; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Laurel

Top eight tracts in Laurel ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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