Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Avonlea Eviction Risk: Moderate , South Riding
Tract 51107611812 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 3,262 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51107611812 covers part of the Avonlea area of Arcola, VA, and scores 4.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,262. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units1,262
Renter share27.8%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate2.4%
Median income$163,258
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across South Riding and the region
Centroid at 38.9444, -77.5341 · click any tract to drill in
Why Avonlea scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from South Riding
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,508 rent vs county FMR
5.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from South Riding
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South Riding
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from South Riding
4.6
How Avonlea compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 8%Socioeconomic
- 40%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 18%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Avonlea. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.0%Food insecurity
- 5.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 6.2%No health insurance
- 13.1%Frequent mental distress
- 18.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Avonlea
Cost burden runs about half here against 37.5% across Loudoun County. Disability prevalence runs 18.2% against 31.5% nationally.
Severe burden reaches 16%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.5/10. SNAP participation runs 5.3% against 15.2% nationally.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 2.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
It tracks the Loudoun County average of 4.1 closely.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611812
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611812?
Census tract 51107611812 in the Avonlea neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611812?
Median gross rent is $2,508/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611812?
2.4% of residents in tract 51107611812 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,262.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611812?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 40th, minority 74th, housing 18th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611812 considered part of Avonlea?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611812 fall within Avonlea (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611812 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611812 compare to South Riding overall?
Tract 51107611812 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of South Riding at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South Riding eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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