Neighborhood · South Riding, VA

Avonlea Eviction Risk: Lower

4 census tracts · pop 24,744 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1/10 · range 1–1.1

Avonlea is a white-asian neighborhood in South Riding with 4 census tracts and a population of 24,744 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 30% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 11% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,961/month sits 2% higher than the South Riding citywide average ($2,905).

Risk score

Lower

4 tracts · population-weighted

Avonlea vs South Riding How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

29.5% +11%

South Riding: 26.5%

Average gross rent

$2,961 +2%

South Riding: $2,905

Average HH income

$188,860 -1%

South Riding: $190,701

Poverty rate

3.2% -20%

South Riding: 4.0%

Renter share

16.7% +1%

South Riding: 16.6%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Avonlea and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 1–1.1

Why Avonlea scores 1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.3–6.3 across tracts

6.3

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 6.6–7.0 across tracts

6.8

Rent control risk

30% of income on rent · Range 1.9–6.8 across tracts

4.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.8–3.5 across tracts

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

17% renter households · Range 3.2–7.5 across tracts

4.2

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 1.9–4.6 across tracts

3.2

Economic stress

3.2% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 5.8–10.0 across tracts

7.7

Risk score comparison

Avonlea vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Avonlea?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 0.1 points from 1 to 1.1. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.

Tracts as heat grid

1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

4 tracts in Avonlea

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51107611808	1.1	5,805	37%	$2,964
51107611807	1	7,920	14%	$3,501
51107611811	1	7,757	31%	$2,599
51107611812	1	3,262	50%	$2,508

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 11

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 8%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 31%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 73%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 12%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Avonlea

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

7.3%Housing insecurity
4.4%Utility shutoff threat
8.3%Food insecurity
4.9%SNAP enrollment
5.7%No health insurance
18.9%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Avonlea

What is the eviction-risk score for Avonlea?

Avonlea scores 1/10 (Lower tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Avonlea compare to South Riding overall?

Avonlea scores 2.3 points lower than South Riding overall (3.3/10). Renters spend 30% of income on rent vs 27% citywide. Average rent: $2,961 vs $2,905.

What is the average rent in Avonlea?

Average gross rent in Avonlea is $2,961/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Avonlea residents are renters?

17% of Avonlea households are renter-occupied (vs 17% in South Riding). The neighborhood has 24,744 residents.

Is Avonlea a high social-vulnerability area?

Avonlea sits in the 11th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Avonlea have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Avonlea is census tract 51107611808 (score 1.1/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1 to 1.1, a spread of 0.1 points.

How safe is Avonlea for landlords?

Avonlea carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to South Riding as a whole (3.3/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Avonlea?

Avonlea has 25,400 residents (White-Asian Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (37.3%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (34.1%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Avonlea

1.1 The Grove at Willowsford 2 tracts · pop 15,645 1.2 Eastgate 2 tracts · pop 15,032 1 Summerfield 2 tracts · pop 20,062 1.5 Loudoun Station 2 tracts · pop 5,281 1 Waxpool 2 tracts · pop 13,459 1.2 Herndon Heights 2 tracts · pop 7,238

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside South Riding

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Avonlea.

1 Ridings at Blue Springs 1 tracts · pop 4,601 1.2 Eastgate 2 tracts · pop 15,032

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