4 census tracts · pop 24,744 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.7/10
· range 3.4–4.3
Avonlea takes in 4 census tracts of South Riding, VA, population 24,744. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 3.7/10, in the Lower tier. The clearest offset is economic stress, at 1/10.
The voucher gap is 28.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint is supply constraint at 7.7/10. 11% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
SNAP participation is 5.0% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity affects 8.5% of adults, 9.3 points below the national rate.
Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 3/10. Cost burden runs 30% against 26.5% citywide, putting Avonlea 3.0% over its own city.
At 17% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. Rent takes 19% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
The 4 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.9 points apart at the extremes. Average gross rent runs $2,961, close to the South Riding average.
With little internal variation, 3.7/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
4 tracts · population-weighted
Avonlea vs South RidingHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority73%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport12%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Avonlea
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
7.3%Housing insecurity
4.4%Utility shutoff threat
8.3%Food insecurity
4.9%SNAP enrollment
5.7%No health insurance
18.9%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Avonlea
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Avonlea?
Avonlea scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Avonlea compare to South Riding overall?
Avonlea scores 0.3 points lower than South Riding overall (4/10). Renters spend 30% of income on rent vs 27% citywide. Average rent: $2,961 vs $2,905.
Q3
What is the average rent in Avonlea?
Average gross rent in Avonlea is $2,961/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Avonlea residents are renters?
17% of Avonlea households are renter-occupied (vs 17% in South Riding). The neighborhood has 24,744 residents.
Q5
Is Avonlea a high social-vulnerability area?
Avonlea sits in the 11th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Avonlea have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Avonlea is census tract 51107611812 (score 4.3/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.4 to 4.3, a spread of 0.9 points.
Q7
How safe is Avonlea for landlords?
Avonlea carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.7/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to South Riding as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Avonlea?
Avonlea has 25,400 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (37.3%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (34.1%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
