Avonlea Eviction Risk: Lower , South Riding

The voucher gap is 28.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Severe burden reaches 17%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the high side, supply constraint reads 7.8/10.

SNAP participation runs 5.3% against 15.2% nationally. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10.

Food insecurity runs 8.9% against 17.8% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 38% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 17% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 37% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

It tracks the Loudoun County average of 4.1 closely.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.