Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Birchdale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Potomac Mills
Tract 51153900403 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,107 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
51153900403 is a census tract in the Birchdale area of Potomac Mills, VA. It scores 4.8/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,107. 54% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units1,900
Renter share26.8%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate6.2%
Median income$99,526
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
74
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
73
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Potomac Mills and the region
Centroid at 38.6455, -77.3006 · click any tract to drill in
Why Birchdale scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Potomac Mills
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.2% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,029 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Potomac Mills
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Potomac Mills
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Potomac Mills
8.2
How Birchdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 71
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 68%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 41Total filings over 1 yrs
- 6.34%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.3%Peak (2016)
- 41Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.1%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.7%Food insecurity
- 11.7%SNAP enrollment
- 8.6%Transit barriers
- 13.7%No health insurance
- 15.0%Frequent mental distress
- 31.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Birchdale
Cost burden runs 66% here against 43.3% across Prince William County. The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.5/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 41 filings here across 1 tracked years. It sits 0.7 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 6.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 6.3% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 7.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Average gross rent is $2,029, close to the Potomac Mills average.
Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $99,526.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900403?
Census tract 51153900403 in the Birchdale neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900403?
Median gross rent is $2,029/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900403?
6.2% of residents in tract 51153900403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,107.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 54th, minority 82th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900403 considered part of Birchdale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900403 fall within Birchdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900403?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 41 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.34% of renter households, peaking at 6.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900403 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900403 compare to Potomac Mills overall?
Tract 51153900403 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Potomac Mills at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Potomac Mills; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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