Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,481 of 84,120 nationally
Birchdale Eviction Risk: Lower , Potomac Mills
Tract 51153900403 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,107 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
For landlords sizing up the Birchdale area of Potomac Mills, census tract 51153900403 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.6/10. That is riskier than roughly 88% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
About 66% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 54% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,029 a month while the average household earns $99,526 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 27% of occupied homes.
Risk score
2.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units1,900
Renter share26.8%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate6.2%
Median income$99,526
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
79
th percentile
High
Within state
48
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Potomac Mills and the region
Centroid at 38.6455, -77.3006 · click any tract to drill in
Why Birchdale scores 2.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Potomac Mills
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.2% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,029 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Potomac Mills
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Potomac Mills
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Potomac Mills
8.2
How Birchdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 71
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 68%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 41Total filings over 1 yrs
- 6.34%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.3%Peak (2016)
- 41Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.1%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.7%Food insecurity
- 11.7%SNAP enrollment
- 8.6%Transit barriers
- 13.7%No health insurance
- 15.0%Frequent mental distress
- 31.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Birchdale
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Potomac Mills, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 41 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 6.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.3% of renter households in 2016.
In CDC survey modeling, about 14.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900403?
Census tract 51153900403 in the Birchdale neighborhood scores 2.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900403?
Median gross rent is $2,029/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900403?
6.2% of residents in tract 51153900403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,107.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 54th, minority 82th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900403 considered part of Birchdale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900403 fall within Birchdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900403?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 41 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.34% of renter households, peaking at 6.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900403 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900403 compare to Potomac Mills overall?
Tract 51153900403 scores 2.7/10, lower than the parent city of Potomac Mills at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Potomac Mills; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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