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Neighborhood · Potomac Mills, VA

Birchdale Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 6,107 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 2.7/10 · range 2.7–2.7

Birchdale is a hispanic-white neighborhood in Potomac Mills with 1 census tract and a population of 6,107 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 2.7/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 66% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 54% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,029/month sits 4% higher than the Potomac Mills citywide average ($1,956).

Risk score
2.7
Lower
1 tracts · population-weighted
Birchdale vs Potomac Mills How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
66.2% +30%
Potomac Mills: 51.0%
Average gross rent
$2,029 +4%
Potomac Mills: $1,956
Average HH income
$99,526 -3%
Potomac Mills: $102,464
Poverty rate
6.2% -59%
Potomac Mills: 15.1%
Renter share
26.8% +12%
Potomac Mills: 23.9%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Birchdale and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 2.7–2.7

Why Birchdale scores 2.7

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.4–6.4 across tracts
6.4
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.4–7.4 across tracts
7.4
Rent control risk
66% of income on rent · Range 9.6–9.6 across tracts
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
27% renter households · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts
5.9
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 8.2–8.2 across tracts
8.2
Economic stress
6.2% below poverty line · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts
1.5
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.8–3.8 across tracts
3.8
Risk score comparison

Birchdale vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Birchdale score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Birchdale: 2.72.7BirchdaleNeighborhoodParent city: 3.73.7Parent cityhost cityState: 3.83.8Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Birchdale

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51153900403 2.7 6,107 66% $2,029
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 71

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 68%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 55%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 82%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 64%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Birchdale

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 41Total filings (sum)
  • 6.34%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.3%Peak year (2016)
  • 6.34%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Birchdale

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Birchdale

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Birchdale?

Birchdale scores 2.7/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Birchdale compare to Potomac Mills overall?

Birchdale scores 1.0 points lower than Potomac Mills overall (3.7/10). Renters spend 66% of income on rent vs 51% citywide. Average rent: $2,029 vs $1,956.
Q3

What is the average rent in Birchdale?

Average gross rent in Birchdale is $2,029/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Birchdale residents are renters?

27% of Birchdale households are renter-occupied (vs 24% in Potomac Mills). The neighborhood has 6,107 residents.
Q5

Is Birchdale a high social-vulnerability area?

Birchdale sits in the 71st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

How safe is Birchdale for landlords?

Birchdale carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (2.7/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Potomac Mills as a whole (3.7/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Birchdale?

Birchdale has 5,789 residents (Hispanic-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (29.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (25.2%), Black (non-Hispanic) (24.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Birchdale

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