1 census tracts · pop 6,107 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.8/10
· range 4.8–4.8
Birchdale maps to a single census tract in Potomac Mills, VA and houses 6,107 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 4.8/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. 54% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
Against a Potomac Mills baseline of 51.0%, 66% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. What pushes the score up most is rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10. On the softer side is economic stress, at 1.5/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint is housing-court posture at 8.2/10. Court records for this tract carry 41 eviction filings.
The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 6.3% of renter households. Judgments average 2.9% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Only 27% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Average gross rent runs $2,029, close to the Potomac Mills average.
Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $99,526.
Because the boundary contains one tract, 4.8/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
Birchdale vs Potomac MillsHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority82%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport64%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Birchdale
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
41Total filings (sum)
6.34%Avg annual filing rate
6.3%Peak year (2016)
6.34%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Birchdale
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
14.1%Housing insecurity
8.2%Utility shutoff threat
16.7%Food insecurity
11.7%SNAP enrollment
13.7%No health insurance
31.4%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Birchdale
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Birchdale?
Birchdale scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Birchdale compare to Potomac Mills overall?
Birchdale scores 0.4 points higher than Potomac Mills overall (4.4/10). Renters spend 66% of income on rent vs 51% citywide. Average rent: $2,029 vs $1,956.
Q3
What is the average rent in Birchdale?
Average gross rent in Birchdale is $2,029/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Birchdale residents are renters?
27% of Birchdale households are renter-occupied (vs 24% in Potomac Mills). The neighborhood has 6,107 residents.
Q5
Is Birchdale a high social-vulnerability area?
Birchdale sits in the 71st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Birchdale for landlords?
Birchdale carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.8/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Potomac Mills as a whole (4.4/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Birchdale?
Birchdale has 5,789 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (29.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (25.2%), Black (non-Hispanic) (24.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
