Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Port Potomac Eviction Risk: Lower , Leesylvania
Tract 51153900801 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,017 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Census tract 51153900801 covers part of the Port Potomac area of Leesylvania, VA, and scores 3.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,017 residents. The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 10/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 97%
Tract context
Occupied units2,301
Renter share2.8%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate0.3%
Median income$178,766
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
41
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Leesylvania and the region
Centroid at 38.5982, -77.2749 · click any tract to drill in
Why Port Potomac scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Leesylvania
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Leesylvania
4.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Leesylvania
7.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Leesylvania
3.6
How Port Potomac compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 12
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 21%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 9Total filings over 1 yrs
- 4.15%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.2%Peak (2016)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.1%Housing insecurity
- 6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.6%Food insecurity
- 7.1%SNAP enrollment
- 6.1%Transit barriers
- 7.1%No health insurance
- 13.8%Frequent mental distress
- 23.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Port Potomac
At $3,501 a month, rents run 53% over what the rest of Leesylvania commands. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Cost burden runs 37% here against 43.3% across Prince William County.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 9 filings here across 1 tracked years. SNAP participation runs 7.1% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 10.6% against 17.8% nationally.
It sits 0.7 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. The worst year on record was 2016, when 4.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 4.2% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900801
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900801?
Census tract 51153900801 in the Port Potomac neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900801?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900801?
0.3% of residents in tract 51153900801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,017.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900801?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 21th, minority 80th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900801 considered part of Port Potomac?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900801 fall within Port Potomac (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900801?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900801 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.15% of renter households, peaking at 4.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900801 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900801 compare to Leesylvania overall?
Tract 51153900801 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Leesylvania at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Leesylvania eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Leesylvania
Top eight tracts in Leesylvania ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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