Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally
Cramers Ridge Eviction Risk: Moderate , Triangle
Tract 51153900905 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,152 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51153900905 is a census tract in the Cramers Ridge area of Triangle, VA. It scores 4.1/10 for landlords. It is home to 6,152 residents. Severe burden reaches 40%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units1,868
Renter share19.0%
SVI overall0.52
Poverty rate8.5%
Median income$134,227
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
62
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
55
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Triangle and the region
Centroid at 38.5412, -77.3179 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cramers Ridge scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Triangle
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.5% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$1,694 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Triangle
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Triangle
7.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Triangle
5.4
How Cramers Ridge compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 52
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 55%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 81%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 65Total filings over 1 yrs
- 13.63%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.6%Peak (2016)
- 65Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.1%Housing insecurity
- 8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.0%Food insecurity
- 10.4%SNAP enrollment
- 8.0%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 15.7%Frequent mental distress
- 28.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cramers Ridge
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.1/10.
Cost burden runs 51% here against 43.3% across Prince William County. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.3/10. The filing record is not thin: 65 evictions over 1 years of observation.
Average gross rent is $1,694, 9% above the Triangle average. Filings peaked in 2016 at 13.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 13.6% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 44th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.6/10. Against average income of $134,227, annual rent is just 15%.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900905
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900905?
Census tract 51153900905 in the Cramers Ridge neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900905?
Median gross rent is $1,694/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900905?
8.5% of residents in tract 51153900905 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,152.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900905?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 52th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 57th, minority 81th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900905 considered part of Cramers Ridge?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900905 fall within Cramers Ridge (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900905?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 65 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900905 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.63% of renter households, peaking at 13.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900905 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900905 compare to Triangle overall?
Tract 51153900905 scores 4.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Triangle at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Triangle; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Triangle
Top eight tracts in Triangle ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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