Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #75,086 of 84,120 nationally
Triangle Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51153901014 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,983 · 15% of tract blocks fall in Triangle
Tract 51153901014 covers Triangle in Virginia. Home to 4,983 residents, it scores 6.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 76th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 54% of renter households, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,441 a month while the average household earns $114,318 a year, roughly 15% of income at the averages. Renters make up 26% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units1,442
Renter share25.9%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate9.4%
Median income$114,318
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
National
11
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Triangle and the region
Centroid at 38.5879, -77.3920 · click any tract to drill in
Why Triangle scores 1.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Triangle
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.4% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,441 rent vs county FMR
1.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Triangle
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Triangle
7.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Triangle
5.4
How Triangle compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 59
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 46%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 49%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.5%Housing insecurity
- 7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.0%Food insecurity
- 10.4%SNAP enrollment
- 7.7%Transit barriers
- 9.6%No health insurance
- 15.6%Frequent mental distress
- 29.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Triangle
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Triangle, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 59th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901014
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901014?
Census tract 51153901014 in Triangle scores 1.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901014?
Median gross rent is $1,441/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901014?
9.4% of residents in tract 51153901014 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,983.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901014?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 46th, minority 79th, housing 49th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 51153901014 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 51153901014 compare to Triangle overall?
Tract 51153901014 scores 1.9/10, lower than the parent city of Triangle at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Triangle; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Triangle
Top eight tracts in Triangle ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related