Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Triangle Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51153901014 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,983 · 15% of tract blocks fall in Triangle
Census tract 51153901014 covers part of Triangle, VA, and scores 4.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,983 residents. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units1,442
Renter share25.9%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate9.4%
Median income$114,318
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
National
55
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Triangle and the region
Centroid at 38.5879, -77.3920 · click any tract to drill in
Why Triangle scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Triangle
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.4% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,441 rent vs county FMR
1.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Triangle
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Triangle
7.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Triangle
5.4
How Triangle compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 59
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 46%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 49%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.5%Housing insecurity
- 7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.0%Food insecurity
- 10.4%SNAP enrollment
- 7.7%Transit barriers
- 9.6%No health insurance
- 15.6%Frequent mental distress
- 29.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Triangle
The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.2/10. Cost burden runs 54% here against 43.3% across Prince William County.
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.4/10. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points. That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Against average income of $114,318, annual rent is just 15%.
Average gross rent is $1,441, close to the Triangle average. 26% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901014
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901014?
Census tract 51153901014 in Triangle scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901014?
Median gross rent is $1,441/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901014?
9.4% of residents in tract 51153901014 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,983.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901014?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 46th, minority 79th, housing 49th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 51153901014 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 51153901014 compare to Triangle overall?
Tract 51153901014 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Triangle at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Triangle; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Triangle
Top eight tracts in Triangle ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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