Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Van Buren Village Eviction Risk: Lower , Dumfries
Tract 51153901013 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,349 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51153901013 sits in the Van Buren Village area of Dumfries, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.8/10. Population here is 3,349. 47% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,089
Renter share14.3%
SVI overall0.52
Poverty rate2.2%
Median income$111,010
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
58
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dumfries and the region
Centroid at 38.5736, -77.3278 · click any tract to drill in
Why Van Buren Village scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dumfries
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,142 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dumfries
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dumfries
5.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dumfries
6.1
How Van Buren Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 52
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 47%Socioeconomic
- 64%Household composition
- 84%Racial/ethnic minority
- 31%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.1%Housing insecurity
- 9.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.1%Food insecurity
- 11.7%SNAP enrollment
- 8.8%Transit barriers
- 11.0%No health insurance
- 16.3%Frequent mental distress
- 27.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Van Buren Village
Cost burden runs 58% here against 43.3% across Prince William County. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.
Average gross rent is $2,142, 24% above the Dumfries average. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 3/10. That is riskier than roughly 38% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 14% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.7/10.
Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $111,010.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901013
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901013?
Census tract 51153901013 in the Van Buren Village neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901013?
Median gross rent is $2,142/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901013?
2.2% of residents in tract 51153901013 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,349.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901013?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 52th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 64th, minority 84th, housing 31th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901013 considered part of Van Buren Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901013 fall within Van Buren Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901013 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901013 compare to Dumfries overall?
Tract 51153901013 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Dumfries at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumfries; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dumfries
Top eight tracts in Dumfries ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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