Neighborhood · Dumfries, VA

Van Buren Village Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 3,349 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.9/10 · range 1.9–1.9

Van Buren Village is a black-hispanic neighborhood in Dumfries with 1 census tract and a population of 3,349 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.9/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 58% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 47% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,142/month sits 24% higher than the Dumfries citywide average ($1,732).

Risk score

1.9

Lower

1 tracts · population-weighted

Van Buren Village vs Dumfries How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

58.3% +120%

Dumfries: 26.5%

Average gross rent

$2,142 +24%

Dumfries: $1,732

Average HH income

$111,010 +42%

Dumfries: $78,373

Poverty rate

2.2% -82%

Dumfries: 11.9%

Renter share

14.3% -34%

Dumfries: 21.8%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Van Buren Village and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 1.9–1.9

Why Van Buren Village scores 1.9

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.4–6.4 across tracts

6.4

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 5.6–5.6 across tracts

5.6

Rent control risk

58% of income on rent · Range 6.3–6.3 across tracts

6.3

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

14% renter households · Range 5.3–5.3 across tracts

5.3

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 6.1–6.1 across tracts

6.1

Economic stress

2.2% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.3–4.3 across tracts

4.3

Risk score comparison

Van Buren Village vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Van Buren Village

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51153901013	1.9	3,349	58%	$2,142

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 52

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 47%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 64%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 84%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 31%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Van Buren Village

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

15.1%Housing insecurity
9.1%Utility shutoff threat
16.1%Food insecurity
11.7%SNAP enrollment
11.0%No health insurance
27.7%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Van Buren Village

What is the eviction-risk score for Van Buren Village?

Van Buren Village scores 1.9/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Van Buren Village compare to Dumfries overall?

Van Buren Village scores 1.6 points lower than Dumfries overall (3.5/10). Renters spend 58% of income on rent vs 27% citywide. Average rent: $2,142 vs $1,732.

What is the average rent in Van Buren Village?

Average gross rent in Van Buren Village is $2,142/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Van Buren Village residents are renters?

14% of Van Buren Village households are renter-occupied (vs 22% in Dumfries). The neighborhood has 3,349 residents.

Is Van Buren Village a high social-vulnerability area?

Van Buren Village sits in the 52nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Van Buren Village for landlords?

Van Buren Village carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.9/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Dumfries as a whole (3.5/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Van Buren Village?

Van Buren Village has 3,425 residents (Black-Hispanic Neighborhood). Top groups: Black (non-Hispanic) (44.3%), Hispanic / Latino (29.7%), White (non-Hispanic) (15.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Van Buren Village

2.1 Spyglass Hill 2 tracts · pop 8,989 1.1 Southlake 2 tracts · pop 12,342 1.9 Potomac Town Center 2 tracts · pop 12,160 2.3 Featherstone Shores 3 tracts · pop 15,165 2.7 Marumsco Hills 2 tracts · pop 8,902 3 Jefferson Plaza 2 tracts · pop 8,175

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Dumfries

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Van Buren Village.

3 Port-O-Dumfries 1 tracts · pop 6,033

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