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Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally

Spyglass Hill Eviction Risk: Lower , Cherry Hill

Tract 51153901016 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,428 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 51153901016 covers part of the Spyglass Hill area of Leesylvania, VA, and scores 3.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.

Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 19% Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,690
Renter share28.8%
SVI overall0.48
Poverty rate5.0%
Median income$181,171

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Spyglass Hill
Very Low
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Cherry Hill
Moderate
Within county
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#48 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Moderate
Within state
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#1,374 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Cherry Hill and the region

Centroid at 38.6012, -77.3066 · click any tract to drill in

Why Spyglass Hill scores 3.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Cherry Hill
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.0% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$2,068 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cherry Hill
4.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cherry Hill
7.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cherry Hill
3.6

How Spyglass Hill compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Spyglass Hill risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.6This tracttract 9010164.4Cherry Hillparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 48

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Spyglass Hill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Spyglass Hill

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.2/10. The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

35% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Prince William County average of 43.3%. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.4/10. At $2,068 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Leesylvania commands.

Nationally it ranks #56,048 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Rent consumes only 14% of average household income of $181,171, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely. 29% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901016

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901016?

Census tract 51153901016 in the Spyglass Hill neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901016?

Median gross rent is $2,068/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901016?

5.0% of residents in tract 51153901016 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,428.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901016?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 48th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 53th, minority 84th, housing 26th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901016 considered part of Spyglass Hill?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901016 fall within Spyglass Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51153901016 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51153901016 compare to Cherry Hill overall?

Tract 51153901016 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Cherry Hill at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cherry Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Cherry Hill

Top eight tracts in Cherry Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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