Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,080 of 84,120 nationally
Spyglass Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Cherry Hill
Tract 51153901016 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,428 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51153901016 runs through the Spyglass Hill area of Cherry Hill. With 5,428 residents, it scores 5.4/10 for landlords. That is riskier than about 51% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 35% of renter households, a high level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,068 monthly, set against $181,171 in average yearly household income, roughly 14% of income at the averages. Renters make up 29% of occupied homes.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,690
Renter share28.8%
SVI overall0.48
Poverty rate5.0%
Median income$181,171
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
83
th percentile
High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Cherry Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.6012, -77.3066 · click any tract to drill in
Why Spyglass Hill scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Cherry Hill
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.0% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$2,068 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cherry Hill
4.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cherry Hill
7.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cherry Hill
3.6
How Spyglass Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 48
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 53%Household composition
- 84%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Spyglass Hill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.1%Housing insecurity
- 8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.4%Food insecurity
- 10.8%SNAP enrollment
- 8.2%Transit barriers
- 10.1%No health insurance
- 15.5%Frequent mental distress
- 25.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Spyglass Hill
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 7.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Cherry Hill eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 14.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is Black and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 48th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901016
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901016?
Census tract 51153901016 in the Spyglass Hill neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901016?
Median gross rent is $2,068/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901016?
5.0% of residents in tract 51153901016 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,428.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901016?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 48th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 53th, minority 84th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901016 considered part of Spyglass Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901016 fall within Spyglass Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901016 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901016 compare to Cherry Hill overall?
Tract 51153901016 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Cherry Hill at 5.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cherry Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Cherry Hill
Top eight tracts in Cherry Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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