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Neighborhood · Ranked #79,998 of 84,120 nationally

Country Roads Eviction Risk: Lower , Buckhall

Tract 51153901303 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,165 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

For landlords sizing up the Country Roads neighborhood of Buckhall, census tract 51153901303 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.2/10. On the national scale it ranks #17,442 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

93% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 87% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,789 monthly, set against $185,972 in average yearly household income, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 11% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 1% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,519
Renter share11.4%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate7.0%
Median income$185,972

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Country Roads
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 4 tracts In Buckhall
Very High
Within county
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#55 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Moderate
Within state
19 th percentile
Rank, 19th percentileLowHigh
#1,772 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Buckhall and the region

Centroid at 38.7272, -77.4864 · click any tract to drill in

Why Country Roads scores 1.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Buckhall
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.0% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$2,789 rent vs county FMR
7.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buckhall
6.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buckhall
3.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buckhall
5.2

How Country Roads compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Country Roads risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.41.4This tracttract 901303Buckhall: 3.43.4Buckhallparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 9

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 10Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 21.28%Avg annual filing rate
  • 21.3%Peak (2016)
  • 10Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Country Roads

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 7.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buckhall eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 9th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 9.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901303

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901303?

Census tract 51153901303 in the Country Roads neighborhood scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901303?

Median gross rent is $2,789/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 93% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901303?

7.0% of residents in tract 51153901303 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,165.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901303?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 22th, minority 64th, housing 6th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901303 considered part of Country Roads?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901303 fall within Country Roads (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901303?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901303 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.28% of renter households, peaking at 21.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901303 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901303 compare to Buckhall overall?

Tract 51153901303 scores 1.4/10, lower than the parent city of Buckhall at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buckhall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buckhall

Top eight tracts in Buckhall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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