Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Shenandoah Eviction Risk: Lower , Independent Hill
Tract 51153901306 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,259 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 51153901306 covers part of the Shenandoah area of Independent Hill, VA, and scores 3.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,259. 36% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 1%
Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units1,723
Renter share1.6%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate7.4%
Median income$182,934
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
22
th percentile
Low
Within state
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Independent Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.6722, -77.4660 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shenandoah scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Independent Hill
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.4% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Independent Hill
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Independent Hill
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Independent Hill
3.1
How Shenandoah compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 44%Household composition
- 42%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 4Total filings over 1 yrs
- 14.29%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.3%Peak (2016)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.7%Housing insecurity
- 5.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.6%Food insecurity
- 6.2%SNAP enrollment
- 5.3%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 14.4%Frequent mental distress
- 27.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shenandoah
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.9/10.
Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 36% of renters here are cost-burdened. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10.
It sits 1.0 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. Food insecurity runs 8.6% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 6.2% against 15.2% nationally.
The filing record is not thin: 4 evictions over 1 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2016, when 14.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 14.3% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 22% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901306
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901306?
Census tract 51153901306 in the Shenandoah neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901306?
7.4% of residents in tract 51153901306 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,259.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901306?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 44th, minority 42th, housing 6th.
Q4
Is tract 51153901306 considered part of Shenandoah?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901306 fall within Shenandoah (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901306?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 4 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901306 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.29% of renter households, peaking at 14.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901306 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901306 compare to Independent Hill overall?
Tract 51153901306 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Independent Hill at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Independent Hill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Independent Hill
Top eight tracts in Independent Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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