Shenandoah Eviction Risk: Lower , Independent Hill
Tract 51153901306 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,259 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Eviction risk in Shenandoah in Independent Hill centers on tract 51153901306, which scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 5,259 residents. On the national scale it ranks #44,003 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 36% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 36% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $182,934 a year. About 2% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Independent Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.6722, -77.4660 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shenandoah scores 1.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Shenandoah compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 44%Household composition
- 42%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 4Total filings over 1 yrs
- 14.29%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.3%Peak (2016)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.7%Housing insecurity
- 5.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.6%Food insecurity
- 6.2%SNAP enrollment
- 5.3%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 14.4%Frequent mental distress
- 27.8%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Shenandoah
What moves this score most is supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Independent Hill, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 9th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
About tract 51153901306
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901306?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901306?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901306?
Is tract 51153901306 considered part of Shenandoah?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901306?
What share of households in tract 51153901306 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153901306 compare to Independent Hill overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Independent Hill
Top eight tracts in Independent Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.