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Neighborhood · Ranked #79,998 of 84,120 nationally

Shenandoah Eviction Risk: Lower , Independent Hill

Tract 51153901306 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,259 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Eviction risk in Shenandoah in Independent Hill centers on tract 51153901306, which scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 5,259 residents. On the national scale it ranks #44,003 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 36% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 36% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $182,934 a year. About 2% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.4
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 1% Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units1,723
Renter share1.6%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate7.4%
Median income$182,934

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Shenandoah
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Independent Hill
Very High
Within county
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#53 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Moderate
Within state
19 th percentile
Rank, 19th percentileLowHigh
#1,772 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Independent Hill and the region

Centroid at 38.6722, -77.4660 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shenandoah scores 1.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Independent Hill
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.4% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Independent Hill
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Independent Hill
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Independent Hill
3.1

How Shenandoah compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Shenandoah risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.41.4This tracttract 901306Independent Hill: 3.33.3Independent Hillparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 9

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 4Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 14.29%Avg annual filing rate
  • 14.3%Peak (2016)
  • 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shenandoah

What moves this score most is supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Independent Hill, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 9th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 7.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901306

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901306?

Census tract 51153901306 in the Shenandoah neighborhood scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901306?

7.4% of residents in tract 51153901306 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,259.
Q3

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901306?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 44th, minority 42th, housing 6th.
Q4

Is tract 51153901306 considered part of Shenandoah?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901306 fall within Shenandoah (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901306?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 4 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901306 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.29% of renter households, peaking at 14.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 51153901306 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51153901306 compare to Independent Hill overall?

Tract 51153901306 scores 1.4/10, lower than the parent city of Independent Hill at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Independent Hill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Independent Hill

Top eight tracts in Independent Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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