Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #83,884 of 84,120 nationally
Winding Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , Independent Hill
Tract 51153901005 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,623 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Here is how census tract 51153901005, in the Winding Creek area of Independent Hill, looks to a landlord: a 4.9/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 6,623. It lands near the 33rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
15% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $3,501 a month against an average household income of $211,089 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 3% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units1,932
Renter share2.8%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate0.3%
Median income$211,089
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
3
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
4
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Independent Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.6207, -77.3883 · click any tract to drill in
Why Winding Creek scores 1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Independent Hill
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Independent Hill
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Independent Hill
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Independent Hill
3.1
How Winding Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 13%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.85%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.9%Peak (2016)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.9%Housing insecurity
- 5.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.7%Food insecurity
- 5.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.0%No health insurance
- 14.4%Frequent mental distress
- 22.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Winding Creek
The score leans hardest on supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Independent Hill, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 1.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 1.9% of renter households in 2016.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901005
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901005?
Census tract 51153901005 in the Winding Creek neighborhood scores 1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901005?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 15% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901005?
0.3% of residents in tract 51153901005 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,623.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901005?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 13th, minority 61th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901005 considered part of Winding Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901005 fall within Winding Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901005?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901005 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.85% of renter households, peaking at 1.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901005 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901005 compare to Independent Hill overall?
Tract 51153901005 scores 1/10, lower than the parent city of Independent Hill at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Independent Hill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Independent Hill
Top eight tracts in Independent Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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