Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Winding Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , Independent Hill
Tract 51153901005 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,623 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 51153901005 sits in the Winding Creek area of Independent Hill, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. It is home to 6,623 residents. Cost burden runs 15% here against 43.3% across Prince William County.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units1,932
Renter share2.8%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate0.3%
Median income$211,089
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
16
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Independent Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.6207, -77.3883 · click any tract to drill in
Why Winding Creek scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Independent Hill
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Independent Hill
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Independent Hill
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Independent Hill
3.1
How Winding Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 13%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.85%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.9%Peak (2016)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.9%Housing insecurity
- 5.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.7%Food insecurity
- 5.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.0%No health insurance
- 14.4%Frequent mental distress
- 22.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Winding Creek
What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 10/10. Average gross rent is $3,501, 53% above the Independent Hill average. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10.
It sits 1.1 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. SNAP participation runs 5.9% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 8.7% against 17.8% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 2 evictions over 1 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2016, when 1.9% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 1.9% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901005
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901005?
Census tract 51153901005 in the Winding Creek neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901005?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 15% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901005?
0.3% of residents in tract 51153901005 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,623.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901005?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 13th, minority 61th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901005 considered part of Winding Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901005 fall within Winding Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901005?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901005 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.85% of renter households, peaking at 1.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901005 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901005 compare to Independent Hill overall?
Tract 51153901005 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Independent Hill at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Independent Hill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Independent Hill
Top eight tracts in Independent Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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