Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Twin Oaks Eviction Risk: Lower , Linton Hall
Tract 51153901414 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,466 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
51153901414 is a census tract in the Twin Oaks area of Linton Hall, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 63%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units1,652
Renter share7.0%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate2.7%
Median income$164,600
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
11
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Linton Hall and the region
Centroid at 38.7483, -77.5998 · click any tract to drill in
Why Twin Oaks scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Linton Hall
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,500 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Linton Hall
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Linton Hall
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Linton Hall
3.0
How Twin Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 9%Socioeconomic
- 49%Household composition
- 55%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 4Total filings over 1 yrs
- 3.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.9%Peak (2016)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.2%Housing insecurity
- 4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.7%Food insecurity
- 5.1%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 6.4%No health insurance
- 13.0%Frequent mental distress
- 25.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Twin Oaks
Cost burden runs 63% here against 43.3% across Prince William County. What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 10/10. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Average gross rent is $3,500, 36% above the Linton Hall average. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10.
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.1 points. Food insecurity runs 7.7% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 5.1% against 15.2% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 4 filings here across 1 tracked years.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 3.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 3.9% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901414
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901414?
Census tract 51153901414 in the Twin Oaks neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901414?
Median gross rent is $3,500/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901414?
2.7% of residents in tract 51153901414 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,466.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901414?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 49th, minority 55th, housing 1th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901414 considered part of Twin Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901414 fall within Twin Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901414?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 4 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901414 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.88% of renter households, peaking at 3.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901414 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901414 compare to Linton Hall overall?
Tract 51153901414 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Linton Hall at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Linton Hall
Top eight tracts in Linton Hall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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