Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Saybrooke Eviction Risk: Lower , Linton Hall
Tract 51153901409 · Prince William County, VA · pop 9,046 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
51153901409 is a census tract in the Saybrooke area of Linton Hall, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Population here is 9,046. 37% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units2,991
Renter share37.7%
SVI overall0.40
Poverty rate2.8%
Median income$129,526
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
8
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Linton Hall and the region
Centroid at 38.7587, -77.5396 · click any tract to drill in
Why Saybrooke scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Linton Hall
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,019 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Linton Hall
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Linton Hall
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Linton Hall
3.0
How Saybrooke compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 40
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 29%Socioeconomic
- 34%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 49%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 75Total filings over 1 yrs
- 9.72%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.7%Peak (2016)
- 75Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.6%Housing insecurity
- 6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.2%Food insecurity
- 7.7%SNAP enrollment
- 6.7%Transit barriers
- 8.2%No health insurance
- 16.2%Frequent mental distress
- 23.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Saybrooke
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Cost burden runs 56% here against 43.3% across Prince William County. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.
Average gross rent is $2,019, 22% below the Linton Hall average. It sits 1.1 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. Court records carry 75 eviction filings across 1 observed years.
Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.9/10. SNAP participation runs 7.7% against 15.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 9.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 9.7% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.6/10.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901409
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901409?
Census tract 51153901409 in the Saybrooke neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901409?
Median gross rent is $2,019/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901409?
2.8% of residents in tract 51153901409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 9,046.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901409?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 34th, minority 72th, housing 49th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901409 considered part of Saybrooke?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901409 fall within Saybrooke (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901409?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 75 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901409 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.72% of renter households, peaking at 9.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901409 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901409 compare to Linton Hall overall?
Tract 51153901409 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Linton Hall at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Linton Hall
Top eight tracts in Linton Hall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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