Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Heathcote Village Eviction Risk: Lower , Haymarket
Tract 51153901510 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,476 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Census tract 51153901510 covers part of the Heathcote Village area of Haymarket, VA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,476. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units2,083
Renter share11.7%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate1.8%
Median income$196,369
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
19
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Haymarket and the region
Centroid at 38.8296, -77.6546 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heathcote Village scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Haymarket
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,818 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Haymarket
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Haymarket
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Haymarket
4.8
How Heathcote Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 29%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 7Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.97%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.0%Peak (2016)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.6%SNAP enrollment
- 4.6%Transit barriers
- 5.2%No health insurance
- 13.7%Frequent mental distress
- 21.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Heathcote Village
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $2,818, 25% above the Haymarket average.
The voucher gap is 21.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Food insecurity runs 7.1% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 1.1 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1.
Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.5/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 7 filings here across 1 tracked years.
Housing insecurity runs 7.0% against 14.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.0% of renter households.
In a typical year about 2.0% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 1.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Against average income of $196,369, annual rent is just 17%.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901510
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901510?
Census tract 51153901510 in the Heathcote Village neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901510?
Median gross rent is $2,818/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901510?
1.8% of residents in tract 51153901510 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,476.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901510?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 29th, minority 53th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901510 considered part of Heathcote Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901510 fall within Heathcote Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901510?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901510 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.97% of renter households, peaking at 2.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901510 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901510 compare to Haymarket overall?
Tract 51153901510 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Haymarket at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Haymarket; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Haymarket
Top eight tracts in Haymarket ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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