Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Yorkshire Park Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51153901702 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,641 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51153901702 covers part of the Yorkshire Park area of Yorkshire, VA, and scores 4.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,641. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 26% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units1,233
Renter share37.1%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate7.4%
Median income$109,691
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Yorkshire and the region
Centroid at 38.7909, -77.4693 · click any tract to drill in
Why Yorkshire Park scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Yorkshire
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.4% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$1,977 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Yorkshire
2.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Yorkshire
9.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Yorkshire
3.2
How Yorkshire Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 83
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 86%Socioeconomic
- 81%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 26Total filings over 1 yrs
- 7.34%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.3%Peak (2016)
- 26Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.0%Housing insecurity
- 10.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.4%Food insecurity
- 16.2%SNAP enrollment
- 11.6%Transit barriers
- 24.7%No health insurance
- 17.7%Frequent mental distress
- 36.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Yorkshire Park
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.1/10.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.8/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 24.7% against 11.3% nationally.
The severe-burden share is 11%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The filing record is not thin: 26 evictions over 1 years of observation.
At $1,977 a month, rents run 11% over what the rest of Yorkshire commands. The worst year on record was 2016, when 7.3% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 7.3% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 8.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901702
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901702?
Census tract 51153901702 in the Yorkshire Park neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901702?
Median gross rent is $1,977/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901702?
7.4% of residents in tract 51153901702 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,641.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901702?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 81th, minority 82th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901702 considered part of Yorkshire Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901702 fall within Yorkshire Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901702?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 26 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901702 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.34% of renter households, peaking at 7.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901702 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901702 compare to Yorkshire overall?
Tract 51153901702 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Yorkshire at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Yorkshire; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Yorkshire
Top eight tracts in Yorkshire ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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