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Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally

Iron Gate Eviction Risk: Moderate , Loch Lomond

Tract 51153901704 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,582 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Tract 51153901704 sits in the Iron Gate area of Sudley, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.6/10. Population here is 6,582. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.

Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28% Stable renters 33% Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units1,969
Renter share61.0%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate10.5%
Median income$89,821

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Iron Gate
Very High
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Loch Lomond
Moderate
Within county
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
High
Within state
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#226 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Loch Lomond and the region

Centroid at 38.7792, -77.4992 · click any tract to drill in

Why Iron Gate scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Loch Lomond
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.5% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,808 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Loch Lomond
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Loch Lomond
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Loch Lomond
6.5

How Iron Gate compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Iron Gate risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.6This tracttract 9017044.0Loch Lomondparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Iron Gate. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Iron Gate

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.3/10. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points.

Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.1/10. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Adults with no health insurance runs 21.0% against 11.3% nationally.

At $1,808 a month, rents run 15% under what the rest of Sudley commands. Nationally it ranks #22,681 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 8.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

45% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $89,821. 61% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901704

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901704?

Census tract 51153901704 in the Iron Gate neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901704?

Median gross rent is $1,808/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901704?

10.5% of residents in tract 51153901704 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,582.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901704?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 80th, minority 90th, housing 63th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901704 considered part of Iron Gate?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901704 fall within Iron Gate (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51153901704 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51153901704 compare to Loch Lomond overall?

Tract 51153901704 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Loch Lomond at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Loch Lomond; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Loch Lomond

Top eight tracts in Loch Lomond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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