Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #73,892 of 84,120 nationally
Hunter Trail At Stafford Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51179010206 · Stafford County, VA · pop 5,728 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51179010206 (the Hunter Trail At Stafford area of Stafford, Virginia) comes in at 5.6/10, the Moderate tier. It lands near the 59th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 47% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 38% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,049 a month against an average household income of $117,685 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 15% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
2
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,744
Renter share14.5%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate7.3%
Median income$117,685
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
81
th percentile
High
Within state
34
th percentile
Low
National
12
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford County and the region
Centroid at 38.4797, -77.4575 · click any tract to drill in
Why Hunter Trail At Stafford scores 2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.3% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$2,049 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Hunter Trail At Stafford compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 52%Socioeconomic
- 30%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 49Total filings over 2 yrs
- 6.52%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.9%Peak (2015)
- 19Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Hunter Trail At Stafford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.2%Housing insecurity
- 8.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.7%Food insecurity
- 11.0%SNAP enrollment
- 8.2%Transit barriers
- 10.6%No health insurance
- 17.0%Frequent mental distress
- 28.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Hunter Trail At Stafford
The score leans hardest on eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are set by Virginia eviction laws law, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stafford County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 49 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 6.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 7.9% of renter households in 2015.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 34th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010206
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010206?
Census tract 51179010206 in the Hunter Trail At Stafford neighborhood scores 2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010206?
Median gross rent is $2,049/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010206?
7.3% of residents in tract 51179010206 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,728.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010206?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 30th, minority 73th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010206 considered part of Hunter Trail At Stafford?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010206 fall within Hunter Trail At Stafford (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010206?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 49 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010206 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.52% of renter households, peaking at 7.9% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51179010206 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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