Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #77,226 of 84,120 nationally
Hunter Trail At Stafford Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51179010212 · Stafford County, VA · pop 3,866 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51179010212 belongs to Hunter Trail At Stafford in Stafford, Virginia. It is home to 3,866 residents and scores 5.6/10, a moderate reading for landlords. That is riskier than about 59% of US census tracts.
About 52% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,808 a month against an average household income of $148,713 a year, roughly 15% of income at the averages. Renters make up 18% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.7
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 83%
Tract context
Occupied units1,287
Renter share17.8%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate7.2%
Median income$148,713
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
61
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
27
th percentile
Low
National
8
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford County and the region
Centroid at 38.4668, -77.4276 · click any tract to drill in
Why Hunter Trail At Stafford scores 1.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.2% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$1,808 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Hunter Trail At Stafford compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 30
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 19%Socioeconomic
- 16%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 57%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 104Total filings over 2 yrs
- 15.52%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.0%Peak (2016)
- 54Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Hunter Trail At Stafford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.4%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.2%Food insecurity
- 8.9%SNAP enrollment
- 7.1%Transit barriers
- 8.8%No health insurance
- 16.2%Frequent mental distress
- 26.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Hunter Trail At Stafford
The heaviest input here is eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are set by Virginia eviction laws law, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stafford County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 104 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 15.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 16.0% of renter households in 2016.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 30th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010212
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010212?
Census tract 51179010212 in the Hunter Trail At Stafford neighborhood scores 1.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010212?
Median gross rent is $1,808/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010212?
7.2% of residents in tract 51179010212 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,866.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010212?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 16th, minority 69th, housing 57th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010212 considered part of Hunter Trail At Stafford?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010212 fall within Hunter Trail At Stafford (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010212?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 104 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010212 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.52% of renter households, peaking at 16.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51179010212 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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