Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Stowe of Amyclae Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51179010214 · Stafford County, VA · pop 4,197 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 4.5/10, tract 51179010214 in the Stowe of Amyclae area of Stafford County, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,197. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,189
Renter share18.3%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate7.8%
Median income$135,139
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
58
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
66
th percentile
Elevated
National
51
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford County and the region
Centroid at 38.4645, -77.4546 · click any tract to drill in
Why Stowe of Amyclae scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.8% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$2,258 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Stowe of Amyclae compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 28
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 42%Socioeconomic
- 12%Household composition
- 60%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 92Total filings over 2 yrs
- 16.89%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.1%Peak (2016)
- 47Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Stowe of Amyclae. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.1%Housing insecurity
- 8.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.7%Food insecurity
- 11.7%SNAP enrollment
- 8.3%Transit barriers
- 9.7%No health insurance
- 17.2%Frequent mental distress
- 28.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Stowe of Amyclae
20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 92 evictions over 2 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2016, when 20.1% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 16.9% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 51st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 18% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. 38% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the Stafford County average of 4.5 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010214
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010214?
Census tract 51179010214 in the Stowe of Amyclae neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010214?
Median gross rent is $2,258/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010214?
7.8% of residents in tract 51179010214 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,197.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010214?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 42th, household 12th, minority 60th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010214 considered part of Stowe of Amyclae?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010214 fall within Stowe of Amyclae (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010214?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 92 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010214 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.89% of renter households, peaking at 20.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51179010214 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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