Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #18,163 of 84,120 nationally
Garrisonville Eviction Risk: Elevated
Tract 51179010215 · Stafford County, VA · pop 2,261 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
51179010215 is a census tract in the Garrisonville area of Stafford County, VA. It scores 6/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,261. Cost burden runs 60% here against 41.0% across Stafford County.
Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units700
Renter share73.1%
SVI overall0.64
Poverty rate9.2%
Median income$61,786
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
94
th percentile
Very High
National
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stafford County and the region
Centroid at 38.4847, -77.4183 · click any tract to drill in
Why Garrisonville scores 6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
State baseline
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.2% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$1,818 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
State baseline
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
State baseline
4.0
Housing court bias
State baseline
5.0
How Garrisonville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 64
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 90%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 34%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.4%Housing insecurity
- 10.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.3%Food insecurity
- 14.9%SNAP enrollment
- 10.3%Transit barriers
- 10.5%No health insurance
- 18.9%Frequent mental distress
- 30.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Garrisonville
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Severe burden reaches 25%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Set annual rent against average income of $61,786 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
73% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points.
Running cool, economic stress reads 2.3/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.9/10.
On the national scale it lands near the 78th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent runs $1,818 a month.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010215
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010215?
Census tract 51179010215 in the Garrisonville neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010215?
Median gross rent is $1,818/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010215?
9.2% of residents in tract 51179010215 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,261.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010215?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 19th, minority 78th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010215 considered part of Garrisonville?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010215 fall within Garrisonville (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010215 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
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