Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Clyde Forge Eviction Risk: Moderate , Falmouth
Tract 51179010306 · Stafford County, VA · pop 2,555 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51179010306 covers part of the Clyde Forge area of Falmouth, VA, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,555. 63% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Stafford County average of 41.0%.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units998
Renter share34.5%
SVI overall0.56
Poverty rate16.9%
Median income$87,235
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
81
th percentile
High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Falmouth and the region
Centroid at 38.3318, -77.4863 · click any tract to drill in
Why Clyde Forge scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Falmouth
7.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
16.9% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,927 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Falmouth
7.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Falmouth
4.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Falmouth
6.6
How Clyde Forge compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 56
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 35%Socioeconomic
- 68%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 58%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.3%Housing insecurity
- 9.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.0%Food insecurity
- 13.7%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 11.1%No health insurance
- 18.3%Frequent mental distress
- 30.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Clyde Forge
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.6/10. Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. Running hot, local political climate reads 7.1/10.
That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
Average gross rent is $1,927, close to the Falmouth average. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $87,235.
34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010306
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010306?
Census tract 51179010306 in the Clyde Forge neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010306?
Median gross rent is $1,927/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010306?
16.9% of residents in tract 51179010306 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,555.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010306?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 56th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 35th, household 68th, minority 82th, housing 58th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010306 considered part of Clyde Forge?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010306 fall within Clyde Forge (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010306 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51179010306 compare to Falmouth overall?
Tract 51179010306 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Falmouth at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Falmouth; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Falmouth
Top eight tracts in Falmouth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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