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Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally

Heather Hills Eviction Risk: Lower , Falmouth

Tract 51179010404 · Stafford County, VA · pop 6,828 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51179010404 is a census tract in the Heather Hills area of Falmouth, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.

Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 12% Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units2,430
Renter share19.0%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate2.4%
Median income$145,115

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Heather Hills
Moderate
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Falmouth
Very Low
Within county
3 th percentile
Rank, 3rd percentileLowHigh
#31 of 32 tracts In Stafford County
Very Low
Within state
31 th percentile
Rank, 31st percentileLowHigh
#1,505 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Falmouth and the region

Centroid at 38.3334, -77.4508 · click any tract to drill in

Why Heather Hills scores 3.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Falmouth
7.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,119 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Falmouth
7.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Falmouth
4.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Falmouth
6.6

How Heather Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Heather Hills risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.4This tracttract 0104044.0Falmouthparent city4.5Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 100Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 9.82%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.2%Peak (2015)
  • 36Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Heather Hills

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. 15% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.6/10. Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.1 points. Food insecurity runs 8.7% against 17.8% nationally.

SNAP participation runs 6.3% against 15.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 100 evictions over 2 years of observation.

36% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Stafford County average of 41.0%. Average gross rent is $2,119, 13% above the Falmouth average. Filings peaked in 2015 at 10.2% of renter households.

In a typical year about 9.8% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #59,654 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51179010404

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010404?

Census tract 51179010404 in the Heather Hills neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51179010404?

Median gross rent is $2,119/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010404?

2.4% of residents in tract 51179010404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,828.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010404?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 18th, household 53th, minority 60th, housing 3th.
Q5

Is tract 51179010404 considered part of Heather Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010404 fall within Heather Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010404?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 100 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010404 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.82% of renter households, peaking at 10.2% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51179010404 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51179010404 compare to Falmouth overall?

Tract 51179010404 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Falmouth at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Falmouth; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Falmouth

Top eight tracts in Falmouth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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