Heather Hills Eviction Risk: Lower , Falmouth
Tract 51179010404 · Stafford County, VA · pop 6,828 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51179010404 is a census tract in the Heather Hills area of Falmouth, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Falmouth and the region
Centroid at 38.3334, -77.4508 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heather Hills scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Heather Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 13
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 18%Socioeconomic
- 53%Household composition
- 60%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 100Total filings over 2 yrs
- 9.82%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.2%Peak (2015)
- 36Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.6%Housing insecurity
- 5.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.7%Food insecurity
- 6.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 6.5%No health insurance
- 15.4%Frequent mental distress
- 25.4%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Heather Hills
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. 15% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.6/10. Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.1 points. Food insecurity runs 8.7% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 6.3% against 15.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 100 evictions over 2 years of observation.
36% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Stafford County average of 41.0%. Average gross rent is $2,119, 13% above the Falmouth average. Filings peaked in 2015 at 10.2% of renter households.
In a typical year about 9.8% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #59,654 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
About tract 51179010404
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010404?
What is the average rent in tract 51179010404?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010404?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010404?
Is tract 51179010404 considered part of Heather Hills?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010404?
What share of households in tract 51179010404 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51179010404 compare to Falmouth overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Falmouth
Top eight tracts in Falmouth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.