Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Nelson Place Eviction Risk: Lower , Newport News
Tract 51700031400 · Newport News city, VA · pop 5,159 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Tract 51700031400 sits in the Nelson Place area of Newport News eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.1/10. It is home to 5,159 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.8/10.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units2,120
Renter share28.7%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate8.3%
Median income$78,478
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
28
th percentile
Low
Within county
28
th percentile
Low
Within state
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newport News and the region
Centroid at 37.0381, -76.4552 · click any tract to drill in
Why Nelson Place scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.3% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$1,547 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5
How Nelson Place compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 63
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 62%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 55%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: A: Best
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 1%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,648Total filings over 5 yrs
- 36.20%Avg annual filing rate
- 48.4%Peak (2016)
- 423Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 44% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Nelson Place. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.2%Housing insecurity
- 9.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.5%Food insecurity
- 13.8%SNAP enrollment
- 9.0%Transit barriers
- 9.2%No health insurance
- 17.4%Frequent mental distress
- 32.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Nelson Place
35% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Newport News City average of 49.3%. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Running cool, economic stress reads 2.1/10. It sits 1.0 points below the Newport News City average of 4.1. Average gross rent is $1,547, 16% above the Newport News average.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,648 filings here across 5 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 48.4% of renter households.
This ground was mapped A ("Best") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Norfolk. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 36.2% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #65,414 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler.
Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $78,478. 29% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51700031400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700031400?
Census tract 51700031400 in the Nelson Place neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51700031400?
Median gross rent is $1,547/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51700031400?
8.3% of residents in tract 51700031400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,159.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51700031400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 62th, household 54th, minority 68th, housing 55th.
Q5
Is tract 51700031400 considered part of Nelson Place?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700031400 fall within Nelson Place (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51700031400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,648 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 51700031400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 36.20% of renter households, peaking at 48.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51700031400 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51700031400 compare to Newport News overall?
Tract 51700031400 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Newport News at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51700031400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newport News
Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Village Green
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ivy Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Christophers Shores
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tuckers Creek
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
North End
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Eastwood
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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