Neighborhood · Ranked #35,899 of 84,120 nationally

Nelson Place Eviction Risk: Moderate , Newport News

Tract 51700031604 · Newport News city, VA · pop 3,037 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

The Moderate-tier score of 5.3/10 for census tract 51700031604 reflects conditions in the Nelson Place neighborhood of Newport News, Virginia. It lands near the 48th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 38% of renter households, a high level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,013 monthly, set against $47,250 in average yearly household income, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 70% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.3

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 27% Stable renters 43% Owners 30%

Tract context

Occupied units1,386

Renter share69.6%

SVI overall0.50

Poverty rate8.0%

Median income$47,250

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Newport News and the region

Centroid at 37.0555, -76.4573 · click any tract to drill in

Why Nelson Place scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Newport News

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.6

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

8.0% poverty · this tract

2.0

Supply constraint

$1,013 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Newport News

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Newport News

4.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Newport News

4.5

How Nelson Place compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 50

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

56%Socioeconomic
27%Household composition
75%Racial/ethnic minority
42%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Nelson Place. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.3%Housing insecurity
10.1%Utility-shutoff threat
17.5%Food insecurity
14.6%SNAP enrollment
9.6%Transit barriers
9.3%No health insurance
18.0%Frequent mental distress
30.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Nelson Place

The score leans hardest on housing court bias at 4.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Newport News eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Newport News City County average of 5.8 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 50th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51700031604

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700031604?

Census tract 51700031604 in the Nelson Place neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51700031604?

Median gross rent is $1,013/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51700031604?

8.0% of residents in tract 51700031604 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,037.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51700031604?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 56th, household 27th, minority 75th, housing 42th.

Is tract 51700031604 considered part of Nelson Place?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700031604 fall within Nelson Place (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51700031604 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51700031604 compare to Newport News overall?

Tract 51700031604 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Newport News at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Newport News

Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.