Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,643 of 84,120 nationally
Warwick Lawns Eviction Risk: Moderate , Newport News
Tract 51700032113 · Newport News city, VA · pop 3,555 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
With a score of 5.8/10, tract 51700032113 in the Warwick Lawns area of Newport News ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,555 residents. That is riskier than about 67% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 53% of renter households, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,460 a month while the average household earns $59,773 a year, roughly 29% of income at the averages. Renters make up 76% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 41%
Stable renters 36%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units1,584
Renter share76.3%
SVI overall0.90
Poverty rate9.7%
Median income$59,773
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
41
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
41
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
77
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newport News and the region
Centroid at 37.1330, -76.5057 · click any tract to drill in
Why Warwick Lawns scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.7% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,460 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5
How Warwick Lawns compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 90
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 67%Socioeconomic
- 89%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 97%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 790Total filings over 5 yrs
- 17.12%Avg annual filing rate
- 27.3%Peak (2014)
- 118Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 37% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Warwick Lawns. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.3%Housing insecurity
- 8.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.2%Food insecurity
- 13.2%SNAP enrollment
- 9.1%Transit barriers
- 10.4%No health insurance
- 16.8%Frequent mental distress
- 34.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Warwick Lawns
The score leans hardest on housing court bias at 4.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Newport News eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Newport News City County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 790 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 17.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 27.3% of renter households in 2014.
The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 90th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51700032113
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700032113?
Census tract 51700032113 in the Warwick Lawns neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51700032113?
Median gross rent is $1,460/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51700032113?
9.7% of residents in tract 51700032113 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,555.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51700032113?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 89th, minority 77th, housing 97th.
Q5
Is tract 51700032113 considered part of Warwick Lawns?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700032113 fall within Warwick Lawns (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51700032113?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 790 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 51700032113 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.12% of renter households, peaking at 27.3% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51700032113 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51700032113 compare to Newport News overall?
Tract 51700032113 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Newport News at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newport News
Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Ivy Park
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Newsome
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Tuckers Creek
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Eastwood
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Village Green
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Christophers Shores
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North End
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
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