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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally

Warwick Lawns Eviction Risk: Moderate , Newport News

Tract 51700032212 · Newport News city, VA · pop 3,491 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

The Warwick Lawns neighborhood of Newport News anchors census tract 51700032212, which lands at 5.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 67% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 43% of renter households, a severe level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,301 a month against an average household income of $60,925 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 75% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 43% Owners 25%
Tract context
Occupied units1,741
Renter share75.0%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate17.9%
Median income$60,925

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Warwick Lawns
Very High
Within parent city
59 th percentile
Rank, 59th percentileLowHigh
#20 of 47 tracts In Newport News
Elevated
Within county
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#16 of 47 tracts In Newport News city
Elevated
Within state
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#317 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Newport News and the region

Centroid at 37.1275, -76.5281 · click any tract to drill in

Why Warwick Lawns scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.9% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$1,301 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5

How Warwick Lawns compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Warwick Lawns risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.74.7This tracttract 032212Newport News: 4.34.3Newport Newsparent cityCounty: 4.44.4Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,866Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 57.06%Avg annual filing rate
  • 76.2%Peak (2014)
  • 413Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2012 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 517000322122012: 564 filings (57.09/100 renter HHs)2013: 599 filings (60.63/100 renter HHs)2014: 753 filings (76.21/100 renter HHs)2015: 537 filings (54.35/100 renter HHs)2016: 413 filings (37.01/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Warwick Lawns. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Warwick Lawns

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 4.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Newport News eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Newport News City County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 22.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 15.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Black and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51700032212

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700032212?

Census tract 51700032212 in the Warwick Lawns neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51700032212?

Median gross rent is $1,301/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51700032212?

17.9% of residents in tract 51700032212 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,491.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51700032212?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 83th, minority 85th, housing 88th.
Q5

Is tract 51700032212 considered part of Warwick Lawns?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700032212 fall within Warwick Lawns (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51700032212?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,866 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 51700032212 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 57.06% of renter households, peaking at 76.2% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51700032212 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51700032212 compare to Newport News overall?

Tract 51700032212 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Newport News at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Newport News

Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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