Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Warwick Lawns Eviction Risk: Moderate , Newport News
Tract 51700032212 · Newport News city, VA · pop 3,491 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
51700032212 is a census tract in the Warwick Lawns area of Newport News, VA. It scores 4.5/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,491. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.8/10.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32%
Stable renters 43%
Owners 25%
Tract context
Occupied units1,741
Renter share75.0%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate17.9%
Median income$60,925
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
66
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newport News and the region
Centroid at 37.1275, -76.5281 · click any tract to drill in
Why Warwick Lawns scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.9% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$1,301 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5
How Warwick Lawns compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 83%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 88%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,866Total filings over 5 yrs
- 57.06%Avg annual filing rate
- 76.2%Peak (2014)
- 413Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Warwick Lawns. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.4%Housing insecurity
- 15.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 27.9%Food insecurity
- 25.2%SNAP enrollment
- 14.2%Transit barriers
- 15.0%No health insurance
- 19.4%Frequent mental distress
- 36.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Warwick Lawns
75% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
The severe-burden share is 13%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 43% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Newport News City average of 49.3%. Food insecurity runs 27.9% against 17.8% nationally.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.7/10. Court records carry 2,866 eviction filings across 5 observed years. Housing insecurity runs 22.4% against 14.2% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2014, when 76.2% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 57.1% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #41,206 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Social vulnerability reads 8.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Newport News City average of 4.1 closely. Average gross rent is $1,301, close to the Newport News average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51700032212
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700032212?
Census tract 51700032212 in the Warwick Lawns neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51700032212?
Median gross rent is $1,301/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51700032212?
17.9% of residents in tract 51700032212 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,491.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51700032212?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 83th, minority 85th, housing 88th.
Q5
Is tract 51700032212 considered part of Warwick Lawns?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700032212 fall within Warwick Lawns (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51700032212?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,866 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 51700032212 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 57.06% of renter households, peaking at 76.2% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51700032212 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51700032212 compare to Newport News overall?
Tract 51700032212 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Newport News at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newport News
Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Eastwood
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Village Green
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ivy Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Christophers Shores
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tuckers Creek
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
North End
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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