Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally
Bayberry Eviction Risk: Moderate , Newport News
Tract 51700032117 · Newport News city, VA · pop 3,941 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
51700032117 is a census tract in the Bayberry area of Newport News, VA. It scores 5.1/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 42%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units2,147
Renter share54.2%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate21.8%
Median income$55,422
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
78
th percentile
High
Within county
78
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newport News and the region
Centroid at 37.0897, -76.4494 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bayberry scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
21.8% poverty · this tract
5.4
Supply constraint
$1,163 rent vs county FMR
1.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5
How Bayberry compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 75
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 64%Socioeconomic
- 82%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 71%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,262Total filings over 5 yrs
- 22.16%Avg annual filing rate
- 26.6%Peak (2013)
- 223Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bayberry. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.5%Housing insecurity
- 9.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.9%Food insecurity
- 15.7%SNAP enrollment
- 9.2%Transit barriers
- 9.8%No health insurance
- 16.2%Frequent mental distress
- 39.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bayberry
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.8/10. Cost burden runs 64% here against 49.3% across Newport News City. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.9/10. The poverty rate is 22%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against the Newport News City average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points.
The filing record is not thin: 1,262 evictions over 5 years of observation. Average gross rent is $1,163, 13% below the Newport News average.
Filings peaked in 2013 at 26.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 22.2% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 63% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.7/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $55,422.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51700032117
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700032117?
Census tract 51700032117 in the Bayberry neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51700032117?
Median gross rent is $1,163/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51700032117?
21.8% of residents in tract 51700032117 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,941.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51700032117?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 82th, minority 56th, housing 71th.
Q5
Is tract 51700032117 considered part of Bayberry?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700032117 fall within Bayberry (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51700032117?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,262 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 51700032117 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.16% of renter households, peaking at 26.6% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51700032117 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51700032117 compare to Newport News overall?
Tract 51700032117 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Newport News at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newport News
Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
North End
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Eastwood
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Village Green
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Ivy Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Christophers Shores
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tuckers Creek
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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