Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #46,312 of 84,120 nationally
Bayberry Eviction Risk: Lower , Newport News
Tract 51700032129 · Newport News city, VA · pop 3,983 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Census tract 51700032129 runs through the Bayberry area of Newport News. With 3,983 residents, it scores 5.4/10 for landlords. It lands near the 51st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 39% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 11% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,411 monthly, set against $70,535 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 75% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 46%
Owners 25%
Tract context
Occupied units1,836
Renter share74.6%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate5.7%
Median income$70,535
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
26
th percentile
Low
Within county
26
th percentile
Low
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Newport News and the region
Centroid at 37.1031, -76.4662 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bayberry scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Newport News
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.7% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$1,411 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newport News
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newport News
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newport News
4.5
How Bayberry compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 27%Socioeconomic
- 50%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 21%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,255Total filings over 5 yrs
- 48.13%Avg annual filing rate
- 65.0%Peak (2015)
- 566Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 58% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bayberry. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.2%Housing insecurity
- 9.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.5%Food insecurity
- 12.4%SNAP enrollment
- 9.0%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 18.3%Frequent mental distress
- 27.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bayberry
The heaviest input here is housing court bias at 4.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Newport News eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Newport News City County average of 5.8 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,255 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 48.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 65.0% of renter households in 2015.
In CDC survey modeling, about 14.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51700032129
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51700032129?
Census tract 51700032129 in the Bayberry neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51700032129?
Median gross rent is $1,411/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51700032129?
5.7% of residents in tract 51700032129 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,983.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51700032129?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 27th, household 50th, minority 72th, housing 21th.
Q5
Is tract 51700032129 considered part of Bayberry?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51700032129 fall within Bayberry (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51700032129?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,255 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 51700032129 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 48.13% of renter households, peaking at 65.0% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51700032129 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51700032129 compare to Newport News overall?
Tract 51700032129 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of Newport News at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newport News eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Newport News
Top eight tracts in Newport News ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Ivy Park
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Newsome
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Tuckers Creek
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Eastwood
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Village Green
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Christophers Shores
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Newsome
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North End
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
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