Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally

Forest Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond

Tract 51760060502 · Richmond city, VA · pop 4,399 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

In the Forest Hill area of Richmond, census tract 51760060502 scores 6.2/10 for eviction risk. It lands near the 79th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

50% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,008 a month against an average household income of $44,958 a year, roughly 27% of income at the averages. Renters make up 66% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.5

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 33% Stable renters 33% Owners 34%

Tract context

Occupied units2,141

Renter share66.4%

SVI overall0.45

Poverty rate9.9%

Median income$44,958

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.5196, -77.4798 · click any tract to drill in

Why Forest Hill scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Richmond

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

9.9% poverty · this tract

2.5

Supply constraint

$1,008 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Richmond

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Richmond

6.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Richmond

5.0

How Forest Hill compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 45

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

66%Socioeconomic
4%Household composition
70%Racial/ethnic minority
54%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

7%Grade A
29%Grade B
2%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

13.9%Housing insecurity
9.2%Utility-shutoff threat
16.1%Food insecurity
14.4%SNAP enrollment
9.1%Transit barriers
8.8%No health insurance
17.3%Frequent mental distress
33.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Forest Hill

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 13.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760060502

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760060502?

Census tract 51760060502 in the Forest Hill neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51760060502?

Median gross rent is $1,008/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760060502?

9.9% of residents in tract 51760060502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,399.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760060502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 45th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 66th, household 4th, minority 70th, housing 54th.

Is tract 51760060502 considered part of Forest Hill?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760060502 fall within Forest Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51760060502 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51760060502 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760060502 scores 4.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51760060502 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.