Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
Chestnut Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond
Tract 51760020100 · Richmond city, VA · pop 1,651 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 51760020100 sits in the Chestnut Hill area of Richmond eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.7/10. Population here is 1,651. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 52%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 19%
Tract context
Occupied units640
Renter share80.8%
SVI overall0.95
Poverty rate58.1%
Median income$23,173
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
85
th percentile
High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Richmond and the region
Centroid at 37.5546, -77.4181 · click any tract to drill in
Why Chestnut Hill scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
58.1% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$344 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0
How Chestnut Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 95
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 95%Socioeconomic
- 99%Household composition
- 98%Racial/ethnic minority
- 47%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 50%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 760Total filings over 4 yrs
- 35.47%Avg annual filing rate
- 42.4%Peak (2016)
- 227Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Chestnut Hill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 45.6%Housing insecurity
- 39.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 61.2%Food insecurity
- 70.2%SNAP enrollment
- 34.1%Transit barriers
- 19.9%No health insurance
- 28.2%Frequent mental distress
- 56.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Chestnut Hill
At $344 a month, rents run 75% under what the rest of Richmond commands. SNAP participation runs 70.2% against 15.2% nationally.
Disability prevalence runs 56.3% against 31.5% nationally. The poverty rate is 58%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 9.8/10. Against Richmond City at 50.2%, roughly two in three of renters here are cost-burdened. This is renter territory: 81% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Severe burden reaches 20%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
It sits 1.4 points above the Richmond City average of 4.3. The filing record is not thin: 760 evictions over 4 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2016, when 42.4% of renter households were served.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51760020100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760020100?
Census tract 51760020100 in the Chestnut Hill neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51760020100?
Median gross rent is $344/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51760020100?
58.1% of residents in tract 51760020100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,651.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51760020100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 99th, minority 98th, housing 47th.
Q5
Is tract 51760020100 considered part of Chestnut Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760020100 fall within Chestnut Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760020100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 760 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760020100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 35.47% of renter households, peaking at 42.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51760020100 struggle to pay rent?
About 45.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 39.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51760020100 compare to Richmond overall?
Tract 51760020100 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Richmond at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51760020100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 50% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Richmond
Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Woodstock
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Fairmount
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Carver
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
The Fan
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Washington Park
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
South Garden
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Montrose Heights
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Oak Grove
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
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