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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Lake Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Suffolk

Tract 51800075502 · Suffolk city, VA · pop 4,407 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Tract 51800075502 sits in the Lake Forest area of Suffolk eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. It is home to 4,407 residents. The severe-burden share is 38%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 5% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,594
Renter share11.2%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate5.9%
Median income$112,727

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Lake Forest
Moderate
Within parent city
23 th percentile
Rank, 23rd percentileLowHigh
#28 of 36 tracts In Suffolk
Low
Within county
23 th percentile
Rank, 23rd percentileLowHigh
#28 of 36 tracts In Suffolk city
Low
Within state
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#1,798 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Suffolk and the region

Centroid at 36.7758, -76.5178 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lake Forest scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Suffolk
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.9% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,258 rent vs county FMR
8.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Suffolk
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Suffolk
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Suffolk
3.5

How Lake Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lake Forest risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.0This tracttract 0755023.4Suffolkparent city3.6Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 130Total filings over 6 yrs
  • 22.17%Avg annual filing rate
  • 27.8%Peak (2012)
  • 18Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 51800075502
Filings dropped 25% over the past 6 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lake Forest

Average gross rent is $2,258, 44% above the Suffolk average. The voucher gap is 33.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.

58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Suffolk City average of 46.8%. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.5/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 8.3/10. Court records carry 130 eviction filings across 6 observed years. It sits 0.6 points below the Suffolk City average of 3.6.

Filings peaked in 2012 at 27.8% of renter households. In a typical year about 22.2% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 11% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51800075502

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51800075502?

Census tract 51800075502 in the Lake Forest neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51800075502?

Median gross rent is $2,258/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51800075502?

5.9% of residents in tract 51800075502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,407.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51800075502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 37th, minority 71th, housing 22th.
Q5

Is tract 51800075502 considered part of Lake Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51800075502 fall within Lake Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51800075502?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 130 eviction filings across 6 validated years in tract 51800075502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.17% of renter households, peaking at 27.8% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51800075502 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51800075502 compare to Suffolk overall?

Tract 51800075502 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Suffolk at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Suffolk eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Suffolk

Top eight tracts in Suffolk ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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