Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Chapel Hill Phase II Eviction Risk: Lower , Highland Village
Tract 48121021719 · Denton, TX · pop 5,567 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 48121021719 covers part of the Chapel Hill Phase II area of Highland Village, TX, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,567 residents. Against Denton County at 45.5%, 59% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 83%
Tract context
Occupied units1,825
Renter share17.0%
SVI overall0.24
Poverty rate3.6%
Median income$170,110
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
39
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Highland Village and the region
Centroid at 33.0853, -97.0900 · click any tract to drill in
Why Chapel Hill Phase II scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Highland Village
5.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.6
State political climate
Texas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
3.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,371 rent vs county FMR
7.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Highland Village
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Highland Village
2.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Highland Village
1.5
How Chapel Hill Phase II compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 24
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 25%Household composition
- 39%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 40Total filings over 11 yrs
- 4.63%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.5%Peak (2016)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 37Total filings 2020-21
- 0.5Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.12×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Fort Worth, TX as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Chapel Hill Phase II
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.
The voucher gap is 25.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 40 filings here across 11 tracked years.
The severe-burden share is 9%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. It sits 0.8 points below the Denton County average of 3.8.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 2.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4.6% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 17% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 3.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 48121021719
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 48121021719?
Census tract 48121021719 in the Chapel Hill Phase II neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 48121021719?
Median gross rent is $2,371/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 48121021719?
3.6% of residents in tract 48121021719 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,567.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 48121021719?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 24th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 25th, minority 39th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 48121021719 considered part of Chapel Hill Phase II?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 48121021719 fall within Chapel Hill Phase II (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 48121021719?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 40 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 48121021719 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.63% of renter households, peaking at 2.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 48121021719 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.12× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Fort Worth eviction risk, TX), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 48121021719 compare to Highland Village overall?
Tract 48121021719 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Highland Village at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Highland Village; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Highland Village
Top eight tracts in Highland Village ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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