Blackshear-Prospect Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Austin

Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. It sits 1.4 points above the Travis County average of 4.0.

The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Court records carry 325 eviction filings across 12 observed years.

Filings peaked in 2009 at 9.5% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

In a typical year about 5.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the TX average is 3.9, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

43% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. Average gross rent is $1,698, close to the Austin average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.