Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
McTyres Cove Eviction Risk: Lower , Brandermill
Tract 51041100912 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 6,910 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
51041100912 is a census tract in the McTyres Cove area of Brandermill, VA. It scores 3.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 6,910 residents. Against Chesterfield County at 42.3%, 24% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units2,369
Renter share7.7%
SVI overall0.11
Poverty rate6.2%
Median income$122,917
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
34
th percentile
Low
Within state
26
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Brandermill and the region
Centroid at 37.4354, -77.6539 · click any tract to drill in
Why McTyres Cove scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Brandermill
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.2% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,760 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brandermill
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brandermill
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brandermill
4.6
How McTyres Cove compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 11
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 50%Household composition
- 44%Racial/ethnic minority
- 7%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 151Total filings over 7 yrs
- 8.41%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.0%Peak (2010)
- 18Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 28% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.3%Housing insecurity
- 4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.9%Food insecurity
- 6.0%SNAP enrollment
- 5.0%Transit barriers
- 5.8%No health insurance
- 15.1%Frequent mental distress
- 26.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in McTyres Cove
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.6/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.6/10.
Food insecurity runs 7.9% against 17.8% nationally. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.
SNAP participation runs 6.0% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 151 evictions over 7 years of observation.
The severe-burden share is 9%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The worst year on record was 2010, when 8.0% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 8.4% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 27th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
At 8% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100912
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100912?
Census tract 51041100912 in the McTyres Cove neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100912?
Median gross rent is $1,760/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 24% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100912?
6.2% of residents in tract 51041100912 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,910.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100912?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 50th, minority 44th, housing 7th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100912 considered part of McTyres Cove?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100912 fall within McTyres Cove (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100912?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 151 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100912 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.41% of renter households, peaking at 8.0% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100912 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100912 compare to Brandermill overall?
Tract 51041100912 scores 3.3/10, lower than the parent city of Brandermill at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brandermill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Brandermill
Top eight tracts in Brandermill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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