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Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally

Cameron Bay Eviction Risk: Moderate , Brandermill

Tract 51041101012 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 5,446 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

51041101012 is a census tract in the Cameron Bay area of Brandermill, VA. It scores 4.9/10 for landlords. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.6/10.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 19% Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units2,133
Renter share41.4%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate12.6%
Median income$90,341

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Cameron Bay
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Brandermill
Very High
Within county
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#18 of 75 tracts In Chesterfield County
High
Within state
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#545 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Brandermill and the region

Centroid at 37.4097, -77.6339 · click any tract to drill in

Why Cameron Bay scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Brandermill
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.6% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,717 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brandermill
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brandermill
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brandermill
4.6

How Cameron Bay compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Cameron Bay risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.9This tracttract 1010124.0Brandermillparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 34

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 758Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 10.39%Avg annual filing rate
  • 14.3%Peak (2013)
  • 67Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 51041101012
Filings dropped 17% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Cameron Bay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Cameron Bay

Severe burden reaches 27%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. 54% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Chesterfield County average of 42.3%.

On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 758 filings here across 7 tracked years.

Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points. The worst year on record was 2013, when 14.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 10.4% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #34,278 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Average gross rent is $1,717, close to the Brandermill average. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $90,341. 41% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51041101012

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041101012?

Census tract 51041101012 in the Cameron Bay neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51041101012?

Median gross rent is $1,717/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51041101012?

12.6% of residents in tract 51041101012 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,446.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51041101012?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 49th, household 21th, minority 37th, housing 31th.
Q5

Is tract 51041101012 considered part of Cameron Bay?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041101012 fall within Cameron Bay (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041101012?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 758 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041101012 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.39% of renter households, peaking at 14.3% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51041101012 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51041101012 compare to Brandermill overall?

Tract 51041101012 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Brandermill at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brandermill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Brandermill

Top eight tracts in Brandermill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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