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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally

Patromdale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chester

Tract 51041100410 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 2,378 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

How risky is the Patromdale area of Chester for landlords? Census tract 51041100410 scores 6.6/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 88th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 68% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 51% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,549 a month while the average household earns $49,205 a year, roughly 38% of income at the averages. Renters make up 72% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48% Stable renters 23% Owners 29%
Tract context
Occupied units1,141
Renter share71.5%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate24.7%
Median income$49,205

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Patromdale
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 5 tracts In Chester
Very High
Within county
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#8 of 75 tracts In Chesterfield County
Very High
Within state
76 th percentile
Rank, 76th percentileLowHigh
#534 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chester and the region

Centroid at 37.3595, -77.4537 · click any tract to drill in

Why Patromdale scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chester
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
24.7% poverty · this tract
6.2
Supply constraint
$1,549 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chester
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chester
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chester
5.6

How Patromdale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Patromdale risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.14.1This tracttract 100410Chester: 3.23.2Chesterparent cityCounty: 2.42.4Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 79

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 692Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 13.22%Avg annual filing rate
  • 22.7%Peak (2016)
  • 161Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510411004102010: 77 filings (10.19/100 renter HHs)2011: 60 filings (7.88/100 renter HHs)2012: 79 filings (10.38/100 renter HHs)2013: 92 filings (12.09/100 renter HHs)2014: 118 filings (15.51/100 renter HHs)2015: 105 filings (13.80/100 renter HHs)2016: 161 filings (22.68/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 109% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Patromdale

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 6.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Chester eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 17.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51041100410

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100410?

Census tract 51041100410 in the Patromdale neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51041100410?

Median gross rent is $1,549/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100410?

24.7% of residents in tract 51041100410 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,378.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100410?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 93th, minority 68th, housing 57th.
Q5

Is tract 51041100410 considered part of Patromdale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100410 fall within Patromdale (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100410?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 692 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100410 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.22% of renter households, peaking at 22.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51041100410 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51041100410 compare to Chester overall?

Tract 51041100410 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Chester at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chester

Top eight tracts in Chester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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