Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Patromdale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chester
Tract 51041100410 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 2,378 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
Tract 51041100410 sits in the Patromdale area of Chester eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10. It is home to 2,378 residents. 51% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 29%
Tract context
Occupied units1,141
Renter share71.5%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate24.7%
Median income$49,205
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
81
th percentile
High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chester and the region
Centroid at 37.3595, -77.4537 · click any tract to drill in
Why Patromdale scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chester
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
24.7% poverty · this tract
6.2
Supply constraint
$1,549 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chester
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chester
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chester
5.6
How Patromdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 79
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 71%Socioeconomic
- 93%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 57%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 692Total filings over 7 yrs
- 13.22%Avg annual filing rate
- 22.7%Peak (2016)
- 161Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 109% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.5%Housing insecurity
- 12.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.7%Food insecurity
- 24.2%SNAP enrollment
- 12.6%Transit barriers
- 12.1%No health insurance
- 20.0%Frequent mental distress
- 41.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Patromdale
68% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Chesterfield County average of 42.3%. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.6/10.
Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income of $49,205, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. 72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The poverty rate is 25%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.5/10. It sits 1.0 points above the Chesterfield County average of 4.2. SNAP participation runs 24.2% against 15.2% nationally.
Court records carry 692 eviction filings across 7 observed years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 22.7% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 13.2% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100410
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100410?
Census tract 51041100410 in the Patromdale neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100410?
Median gross rent is $1,549/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100410?
24.7% of residents in tract 51041100410 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,378.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100410?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 93th, minority 68th, housing 57th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100410 considered part of Patromdale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100410 fall within Patromdale (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100410?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 692 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100410 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.22% of renter households, peaking at 22.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100410 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100410 compare to Chester overall?
Tract 51041100410 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Chester at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chester
Top eight tracts in Chester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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