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Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally

Brighton Green Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bon Air

Tract 51041100923 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 2,852 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

Tract 51041100923 sits in the Brighton Green area of Manchester, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4/10. It is home to 2,852 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.6/10.

Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 10% Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,189
Renter share18.0%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate2.3%
Median income$98,760

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Brighton Green
Very High
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 4 tracts In Bon Air
Very Low
Within county
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#39 of 75 tracts In Chesterfield County
Moderate
Within state
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#1,032 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bon Air and the region

Centroid at 37.4863, -77.5591 · click any tract to drill in

Why Brighton Green scores 4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bon Air
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,765 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bon Air
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bon Air
8.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bon Air
7.4

How Brighton Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Brighton Green risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.0This tracttract 1009234.0Bon Airparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 31

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 151Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 70.34%Avg annual filing rate
  • 129.2%Peak (2014)
  • 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 51041100923
Filings dropped 57% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Brighton Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Brighton Green

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.6/10.

18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 151 filings here across 7 tracked years.

Against Chesterfield County at 42.3%, 47% of renters here are cost-burdened. Average gross rent is $1,765, 13% above the Manchester average.

Filings peaked in 2014 at 129.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 70.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

It tracks the Chesterfield County average of 4.2 closely.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51041100923

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100923?

Census tract 51041100923 in the Brighton Green neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51041100923?

Median gross rent is $1,765/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100923?

2.3% of residents in tract 51041100923 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,852.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100923?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 40th, household 74th, minority 57th, housing 6th.
Q5

Is tract 51041100923 considered part of Brighton Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100923 fall within Brighton Green (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100923?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 151 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100923 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 70.34% of renter households, peaking at 129.2% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51041100923 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51041100923 compare to Bon Air overall?

Tract 51041100923 scores 4/10, right in line with the parent city of Bon Air at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bon Air; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bon Air

Top eight tracts in Bon Air ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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