Brighton Green Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bon Air
Tract 51041100923 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 2,852 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
Tract 51041100923 sits in the Brighton Green area of Manchester, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4/10. It is home to 2,852 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.6/10.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Bon Air and the region
Centroid at 37.4863, -77.5591 · click any tract to drill in
Why Brighton Green scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Brighton Green compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 40%Socioeconomic
- 74%Household composition
- 57%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 151Total filings over 7 yrs
- 70.34%Avg annual filing rate
- 129.2%Peak (2014)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Brighton Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.6%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.6%Food insecurity
- 9.3%SNAP enrollment
- 6.7%Transit barriers
- 7.9%No health insurance
- 15.4%Frequent mental distress
- 28.2%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Brighton Green
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.6/10.
18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 151 filings here across 7 tracked years.
Against Chesterfield County at 42.3%, 47% of renters here are cost-burdened. Average gross rent is $1,765, 13% above the Manchester average.
Filings peaked in 2014 at 129.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 70.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
It tracks the Chesterfield County average of 4.2 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
About tract 51041100923
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100923?
What is the average rent in tract 51041100923?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100923?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100923?
Is tract 51041100923 considered part of Brighton Green?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100923?
What share of households in tract 51041100923 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51041100923 compare to Bon Air overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Bon Air
Top eight tracts in Bon Air ranked by composite eviction-risk score.