Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Brighton Green Eviction Risk: Lower , Bon Air
Tract 51041100907 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 2,661 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 51041100907 sits in the Brighton Green area of Bon Air, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.4/10. 38% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 66%
Tract context
Occupied units1,050
Renter share33.5%
SVI overall0.94
Poverty rate3.3%
Median income$111,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
35
th percentile
Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bon Air and the region
Centroid at 37.5067, -77.5649 · click any tract to drill in
Why Brighton Green scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bon Air
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,524 rent vs county FMR
9.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bon Air
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bon Air
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bon Air
4.5
How Brighton Green compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 94
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 98%Household composition
- 58%Racial/ethnic minority
- 100%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 227Total filings over 7 yrs
- 8.36%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.0%Peak (2014)
- 33Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 32% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Brighton Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.6%Food insecurity
- 6.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 10.2%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 31.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Brighton Green
The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 9.8/10. The voucher gap is 47.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. At $2,524 a month, rents run 40% over what the rest of Bon Air commands.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.6/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.
SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 227 evictions over 7 years of observation.
Food insecurity runs 9.6% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 0.8 points below the Chesterfield County average of 4.2. The worst year on record was 2014, when 9.0% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 8.4% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #59,654 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 9.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.8 points cooler.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100907
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100907?
Census tract 51041100907 in the Brighton Green neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100907?
Median gross rent is $2,524/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100907?
3.3% of residents in tract 51041100907 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,661.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100907?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 98th, minority 58th, housing 100th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100907 considered part of Brighton Green?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100907 fall within Brighton Green (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100907?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 227 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100907 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.36% of renter households, peaking at 9.0% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100907 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100907 compare to Bon Air overall?
Tract 51041100907 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Bon Air at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bon Air; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bon Air
Top eight tracts in Bon Air ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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