Neighborhood · Fair Oaks, VA

Penderlan Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 11,322 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.3/10 · range 3.6–7.3

Penderlan takes in 3 census tracts of Fair Oaks, VA and houses 11,322 people. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 5.3/10, in the Moderate tier. Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 3.6 to 7.3, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk.

The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.9/10. Running cool is economic stress, at 1.8/10. 13% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

Against a Fair Oaks baseline of 29.5%, roughly one in three of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. Court records for this tract carry 67 eviction filings. SNAP participation is 6.4% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

Filing activity peaked in 2013 at 3.5% of renter households. Food insecurity affects 9.8% of adults, 8.0 points below the national rate.

The most recent observed rate, 1.5% in 2016, is well off that peak. That places it #4 of 4 neighborhoods in Fair Oaks.

The closest comparables inside the same city are Penderbrook and Random Hills.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 3.7 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score

5.3

Moderate

3 tracts · population-weighted

Penderlan vs Fair Oaks How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

34.7% +18%

Fair Oaks: 29.5%

Average gross rent

$2,290 +1%

Fair Oaks: $2,275

Average HH income

$128,169 +7%

Fair Oaks: $119,387

Poverty rate

6.4% +17%

Fair Oaks: 5.5%

Renter share

59.5% +8%

Fair Oaks: 55.3%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Penderlan and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 3.6–7.3

Why Penderlan scores 5.3

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts

7.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 7.2–7.2 across tracts

7.2

Rent control risk

35% of income on rent · Range 3.6–6.1 across tracts

5.2

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.9–3.3 across tracts

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

60% renter households · Range 7.9–9.5 across tracts

8.9

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 3.5–4.7 across tracts

4.3

Economic stress

6.4% below poverty line · Range 1.0–3.2 across tracts

1.8

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.5–5.5 across tracts

4.9

Risk score comparison

Penderlan vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Penderlan?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 3.7 points from 3.6 to 7.3. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

7.3 5.7 3.6

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Penderlan

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51059491706	7.3	2,520	51%	$2,196
51059491707	5.7	4,832	33%	$2,231
51059491701	3.6	3,970	27%	$2,422

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 29

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 27%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 12%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 70%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 46%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Penderlan

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

67Total filings (sum)
2.33%Avg annual filing rate
3.5%Peak year (2013)
1.45%Latest filed (2016)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Penderlan

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

8.4%Housing insecurity
5.0%Utility shutoff threat
9.3%Food insecurity
6.0%SNAP enrollment
6.8%No health insurance
20.8%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Penderlan

What is the eviction-risk score for Penderlan?

Penderlan scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Penderlan compare to Fair Oaks overall?

Penderlan scores 0.6 points lower than Fair Oaks overall (5.9/10). Renters spend 35% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $2,290 vs $2,275.

What is the average rent in Penderlan?

Average gross rent in Penderlan is $2,290/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Penderlan residents are renters?

60% of Penderlan households are renter-occupied (vs 55% in Fair Oaks). The neighborhood has 11,322 residents.

Is Penderlan a high social-vulnerability area?

Penderlan sits in the 29th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Penderlan have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Penderlan is census tract 51059491706 (score 7.3/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.6 to 7.3, a spread of 3.7 points.

How safe is Penderlan for landlords?

Penderlan carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.3/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Fair Oaks as a whole (5.9/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Penderlan?

Penderlan has 11,665 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (42.4%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (24.7%), Black (non-Hispanic) (15.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Penderlan

6.1 Dixie Hill 2 tracts · pop 11,943 3.8 Penderwood 3 tracts · pop 12,953 4 Greens of Fair Lakes 4 tracts · pop 19,124 3.5 Crystal Springs 2 tracts · pop 9,845 4.1 Brookfield 3 tracts · pop 17,598 3.8 Willow Springs 3 tracts · pop 15,131

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Fair Oaks

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Penderlan.

5.3 Penderbrook 1 tracts · pop 4,705 5.8 Random Hills 1 tracts · pop 6,749 6.1 Dixie Hill 2 tracts · pop 11,943

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