Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
Penderlan Eviction Risk: Elevated , Fair Oaks
Tract 51059491706 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,520 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 51059491706 sits in the Penderlan area of Fair Oaks eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 7.3/10. Population here is 2,520. It sits 3.0 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48%
Stable renters 47%
Owners 5%
Tract context
Occupied units1,424
Renter share94.6%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate12.8%
Median income$89,559
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
98
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fair Oaks and the region
Centroid at 38.8629, -77.3589 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderlan scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fair Oaks
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.8% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$2,196 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fair Oaks
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fair Oaks
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fair Oaks
4.7
How Penderlan compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 28
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 3%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 32%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Penderlan. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.5%Housing insecurity
- 6.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.4%Food insecurity
- 9.4%SNAP enrollment
- 7.9%Transit barriers
- 9.5%No health insurance
- 16.6%Frequent mental distress
- 23.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderlan
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.5/10. 95% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 51% of renters here are cost-burdened. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.2/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $2,196, close to the Fair Oaks average.
Annual rent works out to 29% of average household income of $89,559.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491706
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491706?
Census tract 51059491706 in the Penderlan neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491706?
Median gross rent is $2,196/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491706?
12.8% of residents in tract 51059491706 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,520.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491706?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 3th, minority 71th, housing 32th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491706 considered part of Penderlan?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491706 fall within Penderlan (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059491706 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059491706 compare to Fair Oaks overall?
Tract 51059491706 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Fair Oaks at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fair Oaks eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fair Oaks
Top eight tracts in Fair Oaks ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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