Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #66,742 of 84,120 nationally
Penderlan Eviction Risk: Lower , Fair Oaks
Tract 51059491706 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,520 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 51059491706, home to 2,520 residents in the Penderlan area of Fair Oaks, scores 6.2/10 for landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #17,433 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 51% of renter households, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,196 a month against an average household income of $89,559 a year, roughly 29% of income at the averages. Renters make up 95% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
2.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48%
Stable renters 47%
Owners 5%
Tract context
Occupied units1,424
Renter share94.6%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate12.8%
Median income$89,559
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fair Oaks and the region
Centroid at 38.8629, -77.3589 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderlan scores 2.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fair Oaks
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.8% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$2,196 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fair Oaks
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fair Oaks
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fair Oaks
4.7
How Penderlan compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 28
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 3%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 32%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Penderlan. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.5%Housing insecurity
- 6.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.4%Food insecurity
- 9.4%SNAP enrollment
- 7.9%Transit barriers
- 9.5%No health insurance
- 16.6%Frequent mental distress
- 23.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderlan
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Fair Oaks eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 28th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 11.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491706
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491706?
Census tract 51059491706 in the Penderlan neighborhood scores 2.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491706?
Median gross rent is $2,196/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491706?
12.8% of residents in tract 51059491706 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,520.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491706?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 3th, minority 71th, housing 32th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491706 considered part of Penderlan?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491706 fall within Penderlan (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059491706 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059491706 compare to Fair Oaks overall?
Tract 51059491706 scores 2.5/10, lower than the parent city of Fair Oaks at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fair Oaks eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fair Oaks
Top eight tracts in Fair Oaks ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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