Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally
Lucas Pond Eviction Risk: Lower , Burke Centre
Tract 51059432300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,156 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51059432300 sits in the Lucas Pond area of Burke eviction risk Centre, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.6/10. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.2/10.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,666
Renter share9.9%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$191,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
34
th percentile
Low
Within state
37
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Burke Centre and the region
Centroid at 38.7800, -77.2892 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lucas Pond scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Burke Centre
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$2,307 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke Centre
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke Centre
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke Centre
3.4
How Lucas Pond compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 7
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 3%Socioeconomic
- 31%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 9%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 19Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.27%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.5%Peak (2011)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 56% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.0%Housing insecurity
- 3.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.7%Food insecurity
- 4.1%SNAP enrollment
- 4.1%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 11.2%Frequent mental distress
- 22.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lucas Pond
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, around a third of renters here are cost-burdened. Food insecurity runs 6.7% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 4.1% against 15.2% nationally.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. The filing record is not thin: 19 evictions over 4 years of observation. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. Filings peaked in 2011 at 4.5% of renter households. At $2,307 a month, rents run 8% under what the rest of Burke Centre commands.
In a typical year about 2.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 33% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 10% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.6/10.
Against average income of $191,250, annual rent is just 14%.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059432300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059432300?
Census tract 51059432300 in the Lucas Pond neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059432300?
Median gross rent is $2,307/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059432300?
4.6% of residents in tract 51059432300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,156.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059432300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 31th, minority 59th, housing 9th.
Q5
Is tract 51059432300 considered part of Lucas Pond?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059432300 fall within Lucas Pond (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059432300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059432300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.27% of renter households, peaking at 4.5% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059432300 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059432300 compare to Burke Centre overall?
Tract 51059432300 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Burke Centre at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk Centre; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Burke Centre
Top eight tracts in Burke Centre ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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