Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Burke Village Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51059432202 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,672 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51059432202 is a census tract in the Burke Village area of Burke Centre, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,672 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,475
Renter share13.9%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate0.4%
Median income$179,097
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
13
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Burke and the region
Centroid at 38.7922, -77.2825 · click any tract to drill in
Why Burke Village scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Burke
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,779 rent vs county FMR
7.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke
3.4
How Burke Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 28%Socioeconomic
- 69%Household composition
- 66%Racial/ethnic minority
- 39%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 28Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.52%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.2%Peak (2011)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Burke Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.5%Housing insecurity
- 3.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.2%Food insecurity
- 4.5%SNAP enrollment
- 4.4%Transit barriers
- 6.2%No health insurance
- 11.8%Frequent mental distress
- 22.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Burke Village
The voucher gap is 20.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
SNAP participation runs 4.5% against 15.2% nationally. The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Cost burden runs 46% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. It sits 0.9 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
The filing record is not thin: 28 evictions over 4 years of observation. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10. Housing insecurity runs 6.5% against 14.2% nationally.
Average gross rent is $2,779, 10% above the Burke Centre average. Filings peaked in 2011 at 3.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.5% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 29th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059432202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059432202?
Census tract 51059432202 in the Burke Village neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059432202?
Median gross rent is $2,779/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059432202?
0.4% of residents in tract 51059432202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,672.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059432202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 69th, minority 66th, housing 39th.
Q5
Is tract 51059432202 considered part of Burke Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059432202 fall within Burke Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059432202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 28 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059432202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.52% of renter households, peaking at 3.2% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059432202 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059432202 compare to Burke overall?
Tract 51059432202 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Burke at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Burke
Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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