Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally
Ridings at Blue Springs Eviction Risk: Lower , Chantilly
Tract 51059490104 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,760 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
51059490104 is a census tract in the Ridings at Blue Springs area of Chantilly, VA. It scores 3.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,760 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.6/10.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,006
Renter share15.5%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate6.2%
Median income$124,722
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Within county
55
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
49
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chantilly and the region
Centroid at 38.9020, -77.4636 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ridings at Blue Springs scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chantilly
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.2% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,810 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chantilly
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chantilly
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chantilly
4.7
How Ridings at Blue Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 60
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 74%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 58%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.0%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.7%Food insecurity
- 8.8%SNAP enrollment
- 7.3%Transit barriers
- 13.2%No health insurance
- 14.2%Frequent mental distress
- 25.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ridings at Blue Springs
At $1,810 a month, rents run 22% under what the rest of Chantilly commands. Cost burden runs about half here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.8/10.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10. Nationally it ranks #50,654 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Only 16% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 6.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $124,722, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059490104
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059490104?
Census tract 51059490104 in the Ridings at Blue Springs neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059490104?
Median gross rent is $1,810/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059490104?
6.2% of residents in tract 51059490104 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,760.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059490104?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 74th, minority 75th, housing 58th.
Q5
Is tract 51059490104 considered part of Ridings at Blue Springs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059490104 fall within Ridings at Blue Springs (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059490104 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059490104 compare to Chantilly overall?
Tract 51059490104 scores 3.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Chantilly at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chantilly eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chantilly
Top eight tracts in Chantilly ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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