Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Brookfield Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chantilly
Tract 51059491601 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,074 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
With a score of 5.2/10, tract 51059491601 in the Brookfield area of Chantilly, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,074 residents. The severe-burden share is 40%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units1,637
Renter share39.3%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate10.4%
Median income$94,659
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
76
th percentile
High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chantilly and the region
Centroid at 38.8864, -77.4307 · click any tract to drill in
Why Brookfield scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chantilly
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.4% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$2,156 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chantilly
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chantilly
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chantilly
4.7
How Brookfield compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 44%Socioeconomic
- 29%Household composition
- 81%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 165Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.24%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.0%Peak (2012)
- 37Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Brookfield. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.7%Housing insecurity
- 6.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.3%Food insecurity
- 10.0%SNAP enrollment
- 7.7%Transit barriers
- 10.9%No health insurance
- 13.9%Frequent mental distress
- 25.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Brookfield
The main counterweight is economic stress at 2.6/10. Cost burden runs 48% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 165 evictions over 4 years of observation. Running hot, regional political climate reads 7.1/10.
Filings peaked in 2012 at 9.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 7.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 65th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 4.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter.
Average gross rent is $2,156, close to the Chantilly average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491601
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491601?
Census tract 51059491601 in the Brookfield neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491601?
Median gross rent is $2,156/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491601?
10.4% of residents in tract 51059491601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,074.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491601?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 29th, minority 81th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491601 considered part of Brookfield?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491601 fall within Brookfield (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491601?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 165 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491601 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.24% of renter households, peaking at 9.0% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059491601 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059491601 compare to Chantilly overall?
Tract 51059491601 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Chantilly at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chantilly eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chantilly
Top eight tracts in Chantilly ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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