Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally
Blue Oaks Eviction Risk: Moderate , Kings Park West
Tract 51059430202 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,222 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
With a score of 4.2/10, tract 51059430202 in the Blue Oaks area of Kings Park West, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. 28% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units1,696
Renter share22.0%
SVI overall0.11
Poverty rate10.8%
Median income$157,083
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
61
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
58
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Kings Park West and the region
Centroid at 38.8168, -77.2865 · click any tract to drill in
Why Blue Oaks scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Kings Park West
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.8% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$2,120 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Kings Park West
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Kings Park West
3.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Kings Park West
6.5
How Blue Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 11
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 20%Socioeconomic
- 11%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 18Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.63%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.0%Peak (2013)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 25% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Blue Oaks. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.6%Food insecurity
- 6.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 6.9%No health insurance
- 13.1%Frequent mental distress
- 24.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Blue Oaks
The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 8.3/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
Average gross rent is $2,120, 17% below the Kings Park West average. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.7/10.
SNAP participation runs 6.4% against 15.2% nationally. Court records carry 18 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
Food insecurity runs 9.6% against 17.8% nationally. The worst year on record was 2013, when 3.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.6% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 46th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 22% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059430202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430202?
Census tract 51059430202 in the Blue Oaks neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059430202?
Median gross rent is $2,120/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430202?
10.8% of residents in tract 51059430202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,222.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 20th, household 11th, minority 53th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 51059430202 considered part of Blue Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430202 fall within Blue Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 18 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059430202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.63% of renter households, peaking at 3.0% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059430202 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059430202 compare to Kings Park West overall?
Tract 51059430202 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Kings Park West at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Kings Park West; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Kings Park West
Top eight tracts in Kings Park West ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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