Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Colony Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Fairfax Station
Tract 51059430102 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,885 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
51059430102 is a census tract in the Colony Park area of Fairfax Station, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,885. The severe-burden share is 46%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units994
Renter share19.5%
SVI overall0.14
Poverty rate2.4%
Median income$151,210
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fairfax Station and the region
Centroid at 38.8024, -77.3022 · click any tract to drill in
Why Colony Park scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fairfax Station
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,646 rent vs county FMR
6.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fairfax Station
9.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fairfax Station
2.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fairfax Station
5.7
How Colony Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 14
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 17%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 21Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.2%Peak (2016)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 133% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Colony Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.5%Housing insecurity
- 4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.5%Food insecurity
- 5.2%SNAP enrollment
- 5.1%Transit barriers
- 6.0%No health insurance
- 12.7%Frequent mental distress
- 21.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Colony Park
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 82% of renters here are cost-burdened. What pushes it up most is rent-regulation exposure at 9.5/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.
Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.2/10. SNAP participation runs 5.2% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 8.5% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 0.9 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 21 filings here across 4 tracked years.
The voucher gap is 14.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Filings peaked in 2016 at 4.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.7% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059430102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430102?
Census tract 51059430102 in the Colony Park neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059430102?
Median gross rent is $2,646/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 82% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430102?
2.4% of residents in tract 51059430102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,885.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 17th, household 58th, minority 64th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51059430102 considered part of Colony Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430102 fall within Colony Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430102?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 21 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059430102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.69% of renter households, peaking at 4.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059430102 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059430102 compare to Fairfax Station overall?
Tract 51059430102 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Fairfax Station at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fairfax eviction risk Station; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fairfax Station
Top eight tracts in Fairfax Station ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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